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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：星展银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：64
【目录或简介】：
Eight developers tapped the overseas bond market. Our
chart of the month showed that in April eight developers
issued or are proposing to issue senior notes with coupon
rates ranging from 8.9% to 13.5%. It highlights the urgency
of developers to improve their cash position.
Liquidity for developers is getting tight. While most
developers are in a rich cash position, it does not mean there
is no crisis ahead. Sales may slow faster than expected. Banks
are turning selective in issuing loans. Not much flexibility is
given for the delay of land premium payment. Settlement of
land appreciation tax may be accelerated. Trust loans, a
channel that a growing number of developers use to fund
their operations, may be included into the loan quota set by
PBOC. If implemented, it will get more difficult for developers
to obtain trust loans due to quota limit. Moreover, there may
be more attractive acquisition opportunities ahead as the
market slows down. To prepare for all these, developers need
to explore different funding channels, including bond market.
Is 13% coupon rate too high? The coupon rate often
depends on rating, maturity, bond size, and track record of
issuers. As recent bonds issuances from some developers,
such as Evergrande and Kaisa, have seen their coupon rates
reached13% or above, many investors are concerned over
the financial positions of these developers. If we factor in
RMB appreciation, long maturity, savings from withholding
tax, the effective interest rate for 13% coupon bonds may be
c.10%. Unless developers can secure loans from domestic or
overseas banks, paying a coupon rate of 13% may be still
doable compared to an interest rate of at least 18% from
private capital. Yet, we believe such high coupon rate will
add significant financial burden to developers if the bond size
is large. For example, Evergrande has to pay more than RMB
1.2bn a year as interest expenses for the bonds it just raised.
Sell into strength. We believe the operating environment
has turned much more difficult for developers compared to
2009 as government intensifies its effort to cool down the
sector. Developers with high net debt ratio, such as
Greentown and Guangzhou R&F, may suffer more than
developers with strong cash positions and capability to obtain
cheaper capital. We suggest investors to sell on any rebound.
We suggest only long funds to buy strong players and
commercial plays on dips. We favour China Overseas (688
HK), CR Land (1109 HK), Franshion (817 HK), and SOHO
China (410 HK). Franshion and SOHO’s commercial property
focus implies lower policy risk to impact their growth ahead.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Who sold the most? 7
Who is well on track of achieving sales target? 8
Who sold at the highest price? 9
Who was the most aggressive in land acquisition? 10
Who entered into Hong Kong main board? 11
Where was the funding from? 11
What was the sales trend of each company? 12
Which city grew the fastest in price? 15
What were the trends of ASP and sales volume in each city? 16
Are there enough to sell? 22
Is it affordable? 26
Will people buy now? 28
What were the trends of affordability in each city? 29
What about office? 34
Rental yield by city 36
What about retail? 37
What about hotel? 37
What do the national figures tell us? 38
Where does the launch of policies drive share prices to? 41
How about macro economic growth? 47
Which developers are most diversified? 49
A glance of financial forecasts for developers 55
PE & PB & discount to NAV trend 57
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