2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
1) Taking a breather ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Loosening policy coming to an end .................................................................................................................................... 3
Growth plateaus in 2010 .................................................................................................................................................... 3
Developers are well-equipped............................................................................................................................................ 3
Picking winners .................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Companies with strong fundamentals prevail...................................................................................................................... 4
Preferred geographic exposure.......................................................................................................................................... 5
2) Supportive policies phasing out ............................................................................................................................................... 6
3) Impact from policy adjustment ................................................................................................................................................. 7
First-tier cities more affected .............................................................................................................................................. 7
High-end developments more affected............................................................................................................................... 7
Commercial properties insulated from policy change.......................................................................................................... 8
4) 2010: flat demand and mild ASP growth .................................................................................................................................. 9
Sector development suggests flat 2010 growth................................................................................................................... 9
5) Picking winners in a normalised phase ................................................................................................................................. 11
Project execution capabilities ........................................................................................................................................... 11
Financial strength............................................................................................................................................................. 11
Access to capital market & funding cost........................................................................................................................... 12
Geographic exposure....................................................................................................................................................... 12
Cash-generating capabilities ............................................................................................................................................ 12
Land-bank quality............................................................................................................................................................. 13
6) Valuation vs fundamentals ...................................................................................................................................................... 14
How can COLI outperform?.............................................................................................................................................. 15
7) Geographic preference ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
First-tier cities: prefer Shanghai and Beijing...................................................................................................................... 16
Regional preference and second-tier cities ....................................................................................................................... 16
Suzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo (YRD).............................................................................................................................. 17
Ji’nan (Bohai Bay Rim area):............................................................................................................................................ 17
Tianjin (Bohai Bay Rim area) ........................................................................................................................................... 18
Xiamen (West Coast of Taiwan Straits)............................................................................................................................ 18
Foshan (PRD) .................................................................................................................................................................. 18
Chengdu (Western China)................................................................................................................................................ 18
Third-tier cities: low cost but thin margins ......................................................................................................................... 18
8) Housing affordability in China ................................................................................................................................................ 19
Land market outlook......................................................................................................................................................... 19
Earnings outlook .............................................................................................................................................................. 19
9) Takeaways from our site visits ............................................................................................................................................... 20
The Western Tour, early November 2009 ......................................................................................................................... 20
The Eastern Tour, mid-November 2009........................................................................................................................... 21
10) Appendix I: City by city transaction volume and ASP trend ............................................................................................... 22
11) Company updates .................................................................................................................................................................. 25

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