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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲航空行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
Earnings are volatile in the early up-cycle
but are generally improving. We remain
positive on European airlines
Network carriers: momentum is key and we
continue to prefer AF-KLM (OW(V)) and
Lufthansa (OW). BA is N(V)
We initiate on the low cost carriers: we
prefer easyJet (OW) over Ryanair (N(V))
with its business traffic growth story
Overview: we initiated coverage on AF-KLM, BA and
Lufthansa in April 2009 and now expand our universe to cover
easyJet and Ryanair. The macro backdrop, traffic and revenues
have improved but there is still uncertainty about the
sustainability of the earnings recovery, particularly as fuel costs
are still high. However, the pace of consolidation has quickened,
which should help returns. Earnings are often volatile at this
point in the cycle, however risks appear to us to be on the upside
and, moreover, valuations do not appear too stretched.
Capacity, demand, yields and fuel: we have updated our macro
forecasts. We expect European capacity (ASKs) to rise by 1.5%
in 2010 (from 0.5%) and 2.5% in 2011 and European passenger
demand to rise by 3% in 2010 (from 1%) and 3.5% in 2011.
Yield recovery remains a worry; we expect average passenger
yields to rise just 1.5% in 2010 (previously 3%). Our fuel
assumptions are unchanged: USD75/b in 2010 and USD76/b in
2011, with a jet fuel crack of 10%. This all amounts to a fairly
modest recovery: long run global RPK growth is c5% pa.
Stock picks: network carriers: AF-KLM (OW(V), TP raised to
EUR16 from EUR15. This remains an attractive leveraged play on
recovery and has most potential return in our valuation. Lufthansa
(OW, we raise our TP to EUR16 from EUR15 and remove the
volatility flag from our rating). LH has proved resilient and, again,
there is good potential return in our valuation. BA (N(V)), TP raised
to 260p from 230p, has rallied strongly and looks up with events.
Low-cost carriers: the rapid expansion by these carriers looks past,
Ryanair’s growth is slowing and average yields should start to rise,
but this shift in strategy has created some uncertainty about future
levels of margins and its valuation is not compelling, in our view.
We initiate with an N(V) rating and TP of EUR4.30. easyJet’s
valuation looks less stretched to us and we like its growing mix of
business traffic, which is supporting yields well. We initiate with an
OW and TP of 570p.
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