2010年3月加拿大石油综合加工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月加拿大石油综合加工行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：
Canadian Integrateds
Shelter from the Global
Security Storm
Paul Sankey
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-6137
paul.sankey@db.com
David T. Clark, CFA
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-8163
david-t.clark@db.com
Silvio Micheloto, CFA
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-1653
silvio.micheloto@db.com
Former CIA 2nd i/c Jim Pavitt underlines the need for geopolitical protection
Underlined by our "Global Security Call," we believe the geopolitical benefits of
Canadian oil growth will trump environmental concerns. We continue to admire
CNQ's operational focus, leverage to oil prices, relative lack of leverage to both
heavy-light spreads and refining, and overall long term growth. For Suncor we
remain concerned over premium valuation, a major refining position that now
equals its oil production, and continued operational challenges. But after relative
under-performance over the past three months, we raise it to HOLD.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top pick
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO),CAD71.88 Buy
Companies featured
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO),CAD71.88 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (CAD) 6.53 4.80 3.89
P/E (x) 11.3 15.0 18.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 7.1 7.4
Suncor Energy (SU.TO),CAD30.59 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (CAD) 0.70 1.10 2.21
P/E (x) 47.7 27.8 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.5 11.7 7.3
Global Markets Research Company
Wise investors would own Canadian oil sands plays as a geopolitical hedge
In a scary world, as detailed in our Monday 1st March “Global Security Call” with
former CIA agent James Pavitt, there is every reason to fear for the security of our
oil supply. Perhaps most notably, the continued pursuit by Iran of nuclear weapons
may lead to a nuclear race in the region; if Israel believes that Iran has the
capability to destroy it, it will not sit back, and we have continued potential major
upheaval in Iraq, Pakistan and Nigeria that could negatively impact oil markets. We
conclude that despite fluctuating environmental rhetoric from the US, the
economic and geopolitical benefits to the US are too great for the current growth
trajectory to be altered. We expect 7%+ annual production growth from the oil
sands, and increasing US import share for Canada. In the event, the Pavitt call
seemingly triggered a sell off in crude futures as he talked down the near term (6-
12 month) potential for an Israeli strike on Iran. However the overall reality is that
Pavitt continues to see huge geopolitical challenges globally, notably from
Pakistan, Iran/Israel, and Nigeria; in this note we summarise our view of his call.
Prefer Buy-rated CNQ, raising target to $80; Suncor raised to Hold, $28 PT
After getting financially very stretched under the onslaught of collapsing oil prices
in late 2008, Suncor has transformed itself from pure-play Canadian oil sands WTI
proxy, into a “Canadian national champion” through the acquisition of Stateprotected
PetroCanada. As we highlight, the company now has as much refining
capacity as oil production. Notably Suncor downplays this. With oil prices well
covered, the message is that this is still the Suncor you knew and loved. However
the “old” Suncor was a pure-play high quality oil sands takeover candidate. Now it
is neither, but still trades at a premium valuation. Equally, Suncor has suffered
operational issues, with recent fires damaging output and making, when combined
with turnarounds, the outlook for 2010 production weak. By contrast, CNQ
continues to have rapid growth and strong free cashflow generation, with a
management reputation for almost obsessive behaviour regarding operational
excellence.
Valuation and risk - see more detail on pages 31 and 44
We value the oils top-down on long-term ROCE/WACC to generate a target
multiple applied to our through-the-cycle EPS to derive our price target. Note that
our WACC is a moving target. Cost of both equity and debt is debatable in the
current environment. We cross check our price targets based on bottom-up NAV
analysis. Oil price is the main general risk, volatility the big equity risk, and
accidents owing to human error or chance the big company-specific risk.

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