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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月全球石油化工行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
Action
Tightening fundamentals underscore our bullish call on oil prices in the coming two
years, with above-trend oil consumption growth. Also, the weakening US dollar, lax
CFTC trading rules, abundant money supply and potentially higher inflation
expectations could fuel higher oil prices. As such, we believe that prices will likely
cross US$100/bbl within the next year.
Catalysts
In the near term, prices will likely be range-bound, given the uneven global
economic growth. The oil price range will likely shift higher as new data points
reinforce the strength of the recovery in the coming year.
Anchor themes
The forward-looking nature of investors could push prices ahead of fundamentals.
The expectation of price appreciation could spiral higher, similar to inflation
expectations. As such, we see potential upside to our oil price forecast.
Oil in Wonderland
Tightening fundamentals through 2012F
Supply growth peaked in 2009, and incremental demand will outpace supply in the
coming two years, causing a decline in OPEC spare capacity. We estimate that
non-OPEC crude supply will increase by only 3.3mmbbl/d from 2010 to 2012, while
demand will increase by 5.4mmbbl/d for the same period. This will reduce OPEC
spare capacity from the current 6.4mmbbl/d to below 4.0mmbbl/d by the end of
2012 – levels last seen in 2008. We believe that tightening fundamentals and
strong financial flows could push oil prices higher and have conservatively
pencilled in a US$100/bbl oil price forecast for the end of 2011 and US$110/bbl for
2012. However, we note that markets can move ahead of fundamentals and
believe that there is potential upside in our price forecast.
China will be the key demand driver
Demand for oil is underpinned by rising consumption from emerging markets, with
half of the growth coming from Asia, in particular China. Robust domestic
consumption and rebounding export demand in China will spur Chinese appetite
for oil in the coming few years. Despite a global economic recession last year,
Chinese crude oil demand increased by 6.0% in 2009 and a further 18.7% y-y in
1Q10. Leading indicators point to further demand growth with strong IP as well as
robust PMI indications. We estimate Chinese oil demand growth of 0.7 mmbbl/d, or
an 8.6% increase y-y, which represents 37% of global growth in 2010F.
Funds continue to flow into the oil market
The US dollar is expected to remain weak against global currencies, with the
exception of the euro. We believe that this will lead to fund inflows in the coming
years, especially as money supply remains above trend. The correlation between the
US dollar and oil prices remains strong when the euro is stripped out of the equation.
Moreover, a potential increase in inflation expectations could see investors diverting
funds into commodities to hedge against such an event. The long-awaited CFTC
proposal, which drove some funds to exit the commodities space before the
announcement, came short of our expectations. Open interest has risen 3% since
the announcement in February 2010, reaching record-high level
Contents
Above trend growth 3
Chinese oil demand continues its upwards trajectory 4
Robust Middle Eastern demand 7
US oil demand in a state of recovery 8
Global refinery utilisation to increase 10
Seasonal pick-up in gasoline demand 12
Higher prices to cause a decline in gasoline demand? 13
Strong non-OECD distillate demand with contribution from US 14
New supply peaked in 2009 16
Poor OPEC compliance has not put pressure on oil prices 17
US could double reserves but not in the near term 17
Iraq — unknown factor 18
Call on OPEC to increase 19
Inventory coming off from peak levels 19
Offshore inventory will likely be less problematic 20
Oil futures likely to remain in a contango 21
No break in fund flow despite a stronger US$/EUR cross rate 23
Funds continue to flow into the oil market 24
Weak CFTC regulation to have minimal effect on oil futures market 26
Inflation expectation could further boost prices 29
Which commodity class will outperform? 29
Long-term oil price to remain at $75/bbl 31
Structural shift in oil price 33
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