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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚洲石油化工行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：122
【目录或简介】：
Action
We raise our upstream sector view to Bullish from Neutral, as we think tightening
demand and supply are likely to push crude oil prices higher over the next two
years. Following upward revisions to our oil price and earnings forecasts, we
upgrade CNOOC, PTTEP and Sinopec to BUY, from Neutral. We cut ONGC to
NEUTRAL, from Buy, since we see it having to pay out maximum subsidies.
Catalysts
Upstream oil stocks tend to trade in close correlation with oil prices. Companies
with strong production growth should see their stock prices further boosted.
Anchor themes
Tightening fundamentals underscore our bullish call on oil prices in the coming two
years, with above-trend oil demand growth. A weakening US dollar, lax CFTC
trading rules, abundant money supply and potentially higher inflation expectations
could fuel oil prices.
Upstream is home
Crude oil price to surge on fundamental, non-fundamental factors
In line with our above-trend GDP forecasts, we forecast demand for oil will
increase by 2mmb/d in FY10F and 1.9mmb/d in FY11F, driven by strong non-
OECD growth. Since upstream capacity growth peaked out in 2009, we expect
OPEC’s spare capacity to be absorbed, falling to less than 4mmb/d — levels last
seen in 2008. A weakening US dollar, lax CFTC trading rules, abundant money
supply and potentially higher inflation expectations could fuel oil prices. We believe
prices will likely exceed US$100/bbl by 4Q2011F.
Upgrading crude oil price forecasts
We are raising our Brent oil price forecast for 2010F by 18%, or US$13/bbl, from
US$72/bbl to US$85/bbl. For 2011F, we forecast oil prices will average US$95/bbl,
up 27%, or US$20, from our previous forecast of US$75/bbl. Also, we introduce
our 2012F oil price forecast of US$110/bbl.
Upstream preferences
We have BUYs on pure E&P plays in the region, including Cairn India, CNOOC
and PTTEP. Our top picks are Cairn India and CNOOC, due to their strong
production growth and hence earnings growth prospects over the next two years.
On a longer-term view, we like integrated oil companies Petrochina and Reliance
due to potential growth in natural gas.
Selective downstream picks
We continue to have a Bullish view on the Asian refiners with the exception of the
Indian names. Our top picks are GS Holdings and PTTAR, based on valuations
and their product mixes. We upgrade Sinopec to BUY, from Neutral, since we
believe it is time to revisit the Chinese refiners on the back of an impending
revision in the domestic oil product pricing mechanism.
Contents
Executive summary 4
Upgrading oil price forecasts 4
Asian refining view 4
Petrochem view 5
Ratings 6
Sector weightings 6
Market picks 8
China 8
India 9
Korea 9
Taiwan 10
Thailand 10
Valuations 12
Sector and stock performance 14
Crude oil market 16
Above-trend demand growth 16
Asian refining 22
Fading after a strong start 22
Better prospects for chemicals and lubricants 23
Stock ratings 24
Asian petrochemicals 25
Strong YTD performance 25
Margins expected to diverge 26
Stock ratings 27
Outlook for China fertiliser segment 30
Asia-Pacific regional update 32
Australia 32
China 34
India 41
Korea 43
Taiwan 45
Thailand 46
Price target valuation methodologies 47
Risks to our investment view 49
Latest company views
CNOOC 52
PetroChina 59
Sinopec 66
Bharat Petroleum Corporation 73
Cairn India 77
GAIL 82
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation 86
Indian Oil Corporation 90
Oil and Natural Gas 94
Reliance Industries 99
SK Energy 104
PTT Exploration & Production 111
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