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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国高速公路行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：101
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment Debates Summary....................................................................................................................................... 3
Investment Summary..................................................................................................................................................... 4
Investment Positives...................................................................................................................................................... 5
Riding on China’s Long-term GDP Growth ............................................................................................................................................................. 5
Beneficiary of Rising Car Consumption in China .................................................................................................................................................... 5
Export Recovery to Boost Traffic Volume in Coastal Areas .................................................................................................................................... 6
Toll-by-weight: a Positive Catalyst .......................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Investment Concerns..................................................................................................................................................... 7
Traffic Migration to Railways ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Traffic Migration to Newly Constructed Toll Roads ................................................................................................................................................. 7
Rising Fuel Cost ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Falling IRR............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Debate #1: Is Aggressive Road Investment Negative for Listcos?............................................................................ 8
Debate #2: What Drives Stock Prices? ....................................................................................................................... 13
Debate #3: Are Toll Road Companies Bear Market Stocks? .................................................................................... 16
Valuation: How to Value Toll Road Stocks................................................................................................................. 17
Peer Comparison.......................................................................................................................................................... 21
Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 23
Company Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 24
Zhejiang Expressway................................................................................................................................................... 25
Sichuan Expressway.................................................................................................................................................... 39
Jiangsu Expressway.................................................................................................................................................... 50
Shenzhen Expressway................................................................................................................................................. 64
Anhui Expressway ....................................................................................................................................................... 78
HHI ................................................................................................................................................................................. 90
Appendix 1: China Expressway Network Brief Introduction .................................................................................... 99
Appendix 2: China Toll Road Industry Background................................................................................................ 101
Appendix 3: Economic Growth Outlook of Five Key Provinces ............................................................................ 103
Appendix 4: Peer Comparison with Overseas Toll Road Companies ................................................................... 105
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