【名称及出版时间】:东海证券-2010年医药行业投资策略:新医改全面实施年,挖掘受益超预期个股-091224.PDF
【来源】:东海证券
【文件格式】:PDF
【页数】:39
【内容提要】
前 言....................................................................................................................................................................................1
1 2009年医药行业发展回顾...........................................................................................................................................2
1.1 2009年医药行业经济效益...............................................................................................................................2
1.2 2009年医药行业重要事件概述........................................................................................................................2
1.3 2009年医药板块二级市场表现........................................................................................................................4
2 医药行业需求分析........................................................................................................................................................6
2.1 医药行业需求发展状况....................................................................................................................................6
2.2 医药行业需求受惠于国民经济持续增长..........................................................................................................7
2.3 医药行业需求受惠于人口老龄化.....................................................................................................................9
2.4 医药行业需求受惠于城镇化...........................................................................................................................11
2.5 医药行业需求受惠于新医改...........................................................................................................................12
3 医药行业供给分析......................................................................................................................................................17
3.1 医药制造企业总体情况..................................................................................................................................17
3.2 医药市场集中度分析......................................................................................................................................18
3.3 新医改对医药行业供给的影响.......................................................................................................................18
4 医药行业估值水平、投资评级及投资策略...............................................................................................................23
4.1 医药板块的估值水平渐高,但仍处于合理区间............................................................................................23
4.2 医药板块2010年的投资评级.........................................................................................................................25
5 投资策略......................................................................................................................................................................28
5.1 长期投资策略..................................................................................................................................................28
5.2 2010年投资策略.............................................................................................................................................28
5.3 短期投资策略..................................................................................................................................................32
5.4 医药板块投资的时间窗口...............................................................................................................................32
5.5 风险因素..........................................................................................................................................................33
6、2010年医药行业重点公司分析..............................................................................................................................34
6.1 益佰制药(600594)......................................................................................................................................34
6.2 康缘药业(600557)......................................................................................................................................34
6.3 三九医药(000999)......................................................................................................................................35
6.4 南京医药(600713)......................................................................................................................................36
6.5 上海莱士(002252)......................................................................................................................................36
6.6 海南海药(000566)......................................................................................................................................37