2010年1月印度化工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月印度化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：61
        【目录或简介】：

Continued short-term weakness: Our analysis of 40 wireless operators
across 12 emerging market countries suggests financial metrics for Indian
wireless companies could continue to weaken for next two to three
quarters. RPMs could correct by 30-40% and EBITDA margins could
decline (peak to trough) by 1,000-1,200 bp.
■
Margins and EPS: The eventual recovery could lead to EBITDA margins
that are 500 bp below the pre-competition levels for Bharti with ROIC
compression of around 500 bp. Furthermore, this recovery would require
both regulatory action and the exit of a few players as a necessary
condition. Building slightly better margins in our models, we upgrade
Bharti’s EPS by 6% for FY12 and Idea’s EPS by 20% for FY12.
■
Valuation and ratings: Stock price recovery should remain lacklustre on
the back of a muted recovery in financial metrics. Valuations are not cheap
either, with Bharti’s EV/EBITDA at 8.5x and P/E at 16x FY3/11E despite
slowing growth. However, we believe that with a 25% share price fall since
October 2009, Bharti could now be fairly valued and hence we upgrade our
rating to NEUTRAL (from Underperform) and our target price to Rs320
(from Rs290). Idea, however, still looks expensive despite our earnings
upgrade and therefore we maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating (although
we upgraded our target price to Rs50 from Rs45). We retain our
UNDERPERFORM rating and target on RCOM.

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 化工行业 印度化 研究报告 行业 印度 化工

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