2010年1月中国港口行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国港口行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Turning more positive on volume recovery. We raise our forecast for
China’s container throughput growth in 2010 to 14.8% from 11.6%, as some
macro data recorded a strong end to 2009, such as US GDP growth and
China’s export and port throughput, with leading indicators pointing to a Vshaped
recovery in 1H10. While a consumption pullback in the G3 and sharp
inventory destocking were the key forces behind the trade collapse in 2009,
we believe that retail restocking (the US inventory/sales ratio has already
fallen to an historical low) and further progress in final demand will be the
key recovery drivers in 2010.
■ Earnings growth may surprise on upside. Positive operating leverage and
an improved ASP (due to a better traffic mix) mean significant margin
expansion and strong earnings growth. We expect the sector to grow 15-
37% YoY organically in 2010 – at the high-end of the street’s expectations.
We also see upside risks to consensus earnings being a key future catalyst.
■ Stock picks – focus on high-growth container terminal plays. Investors
should focus on port stocks most leveraged to a container trade recovery, as
these stocks should tend to deliver high earnings growth in 2010 with upside
surprises, in our view. CMHI remains our top pick, as we estimate it will deliver
the strongest organic earnings growth of 37% in the sector in 2010 and its riskreward
profile looks favourable as it now trades at the mid-cycle valuations.
We upgrade SCW ‘B’ and XIPC to an OUTPERFORM, given their high
exposure to a volume recovery and attractive valuations (still at the low end of
the sector). We also upgrade SIPG to a NEUTRAL, as we believe it is better
positioned than peers to achieve sustainable medium-term volume growth.

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