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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本化工行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：61
【目录或简介】：
Positive impression of strong competitiveness
of Middle Eastern petrochemical operations
■
Middle East manufacturers set to win in commodity chemicals: This
report is a summary of our emerging markets chemicals team’s 29 March
report entitled, Middle Eastern Petrochemicals (report appended). The report
concludes that Middle Eastern petrochemical manufacturers will maintain
high OPM over the long term, including periods of easing demand, because
of the strong cost competitiveness they enjoy by using low-cost ethane as a
raw material. The report also asserts that their shares appear to be
substantially undervalued compared to global chemical manufacturers.
■
Strong cost competitiveness: A major focus of the emerging markets
chemicals team’s report is the overwhelming cost competitiveness of Middle
Eastern petrochemical manufacturers. The cost of producing ethylene in the
Middle East when the supply/demand balance is easing is 69% cheaper
than the cost of producing it from naphtha, assuming a crude oil price of
$75/bbl. Even at the peak of the cycle, it is 52% cheaper (Figures 11-12).
■
Middle East capacity enhancements to ramp up from 2010: The report
also highlights the fact that Middle East capacity enhancements will ramp up
from 2010, with ethylene production capacity forecast to grow 7.2% in 2010
and 5.3% in 2011. Average demand growth was 2.5% annually in 2000-08,
so expected capacity growth in 2010-11 is well above that average,
prompting forecasts of oversupply. Propylene capacity is also expected to
increase 5.4% in 2010, higher than forecast demand growth of 3.3%.
■
Initiate coverage of Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company
(PRC, 2380.SE): Our emerging markets chemicals team has initiated
coverage of PRC, in which Sumitomo Chemical is an equity-method investor,
with a NEUTRAL rating and 33.2 SAR target price. We believe evaluation of
the company’s oil refining business, currently operating at a loss, is
important. If it can lift its refining margin to the same level as the international
oil majors, we believe it could become a blue-chip company. Meanwhile, its
petrochemicals segment is highly cost competitive and very profitable due to
the high yields resulting from its strong ethylene glycol manufacturing
technology.
■
Focus on Sumitomo Chemical and Mitsubishi Gas Chemical on their
cost competitiveness: We focus on two major Japanese companies with
operations relying on low-price Middle East gas: Sumitomo Chemical (4005,
NEUTRAL, TP ¥380), one of the parent companies of PRC, and methanol
producer Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥600). While
Japanese diversified petrochemical manufacturers appear set to lose their
cost competitiveness in the medium term, we believe these two companies
should continue to expand earnings due to their strong international
competitiveness. We visited the Saudi Arabian plants of both companies on
21-22 March, and gained a positive impression of the strong
competitiveness of their Middle Eastern petrochemical operations.
Table of contents
Middle Eastern Petrochemicals: Shaping the commodity chemicals landscape 3
Executive summary 4
Why MENA petrochemicals? 10
Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company 12
Why now ? 29
Credit Suisse HOLT® perspective: NJA Chemicals 32
Credit Suisse Global Petrochemical coverage 49
Credit Suisse MENA petrochemical coverage 50
Japan focus stocks
Sumitomo Chemical (4005, NEUTRAL, TP ¥380)
Plant visit: PRC plant visit confirms 'cost-competitiveness' 51
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥600)
Visit to MGC's Saudi Arabian methanol plant: cost-competitive on low ethane costs 55
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