2010年4月中东化工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中东化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：130
        【目录或简介】：


Saudi mid cap petrochemicals – Shifting into focus
The Saudi government’s efforts to establish the petrochemicals industry as a key pillar of the economy are
about to bear fruit, we believe, as a series of new plants are set to come on stream over the next year or so.
Investors can choose exposure to a range of products safe in the knowledge not only that the plants are
among the lowest-cost producers globally but also that their products are effectively presold via offtake
agreements. Execution risk, though present, is limited by the plants’ technical collaborations with some of
the world’s leading petrochemical companies; financing, for the most part, is already in place.
The competitiveness of the industry stems from the feedstock advantage that local Saudi producers enjoy
and we believe that there is little risk of any drastic changes to the feedstock pricing regime. The
government is committed to developing its downstream petrochemical industry with a focus on job
creation, and removing the incentives to invest would send the wrong signals. Furthermore, the
petrochemical feedstock discount is a small fraction of the government’s oil revenues. With little financial
imperative to change prices, we believe that the feedstock competitiveness of the industry is sustainable.
We initiate on seven companies, all of which have strong individual catalysts, shifting the focus away
from oil prices. The Saudi midcap petrochemical sector has on average underperformed the large caps by
20% since the start of the year. Given limited equity coverage, few of these companies are well
understood by the market in our opinion. The companies range from those with a single but highly
profitable product to those with a diversified but less profitable product stream, as the chart below shows.
Owing to the start-up nature of these firms, their earnings CAGR over the 2009-14e period averages 39%,
on our estimates, against 8% for the large cap Saudi petrochemical names over the same period. Owning a
basket of these stocks would allow investors to replicate the market petrochemical proxy (SABIC) while
avoiding certain regional exposures such as Europe and the US, in our view.
We like the downstream integration of Sipchem (Overweight (V), target price SAR30) as the company
transforms itself from a pure-play methanol producer to an integrated acetyls company. The addition of
the acetyls plant, set to start commercial production from Q2 2010, should boost revenues by 45% for
2010e, on our estimates.
Shifting into focus

Investment summary 5
Why mid caps? 12
Saudi mid cap chemical
sector overview 17
Products – what we like, what
we don’t 21
Saudi International
Petrochemical Company
(Sipchem) 25
Sahara Petrochemical
Company 34
National Petrochemical
Company (Petrochem) 50
Advanced Petrochemical
Company (APC) 58
Methanol Chemicals
Company (Chemanol) 68
Saudi Industrial Investment
Group (SIIG) 76
National Industrialization
Company (Tasnee) 86
Appendices 99
HSBC product pricing
database 100
Product profiles and supply
demand 104
Overview of the Middle
Eastern chemical industry 117
Disclosure appendix 125
Disclaimer 128
Contents

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