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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国互联网与传媒行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Debate 1: Adv recovery still on track? Yes: We are
Overweight Chinese adv leaders, including Sina, Sohu,
Focus Media, and AirMedia, as adv recovery is still at an
early stage in China, in our view. Notably, 1) adv leaders
resumed their pricing power – CCTV, Focus Media, and
AirMedia raised their adv pricing by 10-30% early this
year, signaling stronger adv demand. 2) Sina and
AirMedia offered solid 1Q2010 outlook, with adv sales
likely up 40-50% YoY. 3) Adv pre-sales have improved
relative to the 2009 level, according to VisionChina and
Clear Media. 4) Adv spending from MNCs jumped 30%
YoY on CCTV’s prime-time adv auction for 2010.
We expect more upside from these adv leaders: 1) They
should enjoy operating leverage given their loss-making/
small profit base last year and relatively stable cost base
this year. Notably, some leaders (e.g., Focus Media and
AirMedia) took advantage of the downturn to trim their
concession costs. 2) In line with their historical practice,
these leaders may hike adv rate again in 2H2010. On
our analysis, every 1% of adv price increase would lift
their earnings by an average of 5-10%. 3) Major events
(e.g., World Expo, Asia Games and World Cup) should
help fuel growth. On our calculation, the Olympics lifted
the adv sales for Sina and Sohu by 10-20% in 2008.
Debate 2: China Internet market ex-growth? Not yet
On our observation, Internet sector is still among the
fastest growing in China. Note that: 1) Tencent's
earnings soared 75% YoY in the latest quarter. 2) Baidu
and Ctrip both reported earnings growth of 40-50% YoY
in 4Q09. 3) Taobao, the largest online shopping site in
China, may increase its transaction value by 80-100% in
2010. 4) To date, only 30% of Chinese people use
Internet (vs. 70-80% in the US and Japan), while only
10% of Tencent’s subscribers are paying.
As value investors, we would Overweight online game
leaders, such as Perfect World and NetEase, thanks to
their cheaper valuation and “defensive” nature, which
should help us to counter the macro uncertainties (e.g.,
inflation and central bank tightening).
China Internet / Media: Advertising Rebound? Yes; Ex-growth? Surely No
Key debate 1:
China Internet market ex-growth? Not yet…
Some investors argue that China’s Internet and media market
may slow down after many years of hyper growth. On our
observation, China Internet and media players are still among
the fastest growing companies in China. Notably,
• Tencent's earnings soared 75% YoY in the latest quarter.
• Baidu and Ctrip both reported earnings growth of 40-50%
YoY in 4Q09.
• Sina, the online advertising leader in China, guided that its
advertising sales should climb 40-50% YoY in 1Q2010.
• Taobao, the largest online shopping site in China, aims to
expand its transaction value by 80-100% to
Rmb350-400bn in 2010. In other words, every Chinese
person is expected to spend an average of Rmb300-400
on Taobao this year.
• China already tops the world by Internet population, which
jumped 30% YoY in 2009 to over 380mn, above the size of
the entire US population. Yet, we consider China’s Internet
market far from saturation, as: 1) only ~30% of Chinese
people use the Internet to date (vs. 70-80% in the US,
Japan, and Korea), implying ample upside. 2) Only 15% of
Chinese people in the rural areas are using Internet
(CNNIC). 3) Mobile Internet users only account for roughly
30% of mobile phone subscribers in China (CNNIC).
• Only 10% of the customers for Tencent, which is the
largest “online park” in China and a proxy for the Chinese
online population, are paying subscribers.
• In our view, the day when “content is king” has arrived in
China, thanks to the mounting consumer demand for
quality media content. In 2009, 1) China’s movie box office
sales surpassed Rmb6.2bn, accelerating by 43% YoY (vs.
+25-30% in the prior three years). 2) China produced 12
domestic “blockbuster” movies, with box office sales
above Rmb100mn each, equating the combined total in
the previous three years. 3) To date, the movie “Avatar”
generated box office sales of over Rmb1bn in China,
nearly 1.5 times above the level for the prior box office
champion in China. 4) “Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf-II”,
a well-known domestic cartoon movie, raked in over
Rmb100mn box office sales in the first two weeks after
release, making it a record in China’s cartoon industry.
In our view, several unique macro factors should continue to
fuel the growth of Chinese Internet and media market:
• Unlike the US, which hosts some highly competitive
traditional media players (e.g., Disney, CBS, New York
Times, and Hollywood), most of China’s traditional media,
including TV and newspapers, are state-owned. They
often lag behind in quality content and customer services.
As a result, China is seeing a more dramatic market share
shift in media consumption from “old” media to new media,
such as Internet. For instance, over the past five years, 1)
China’s online advertising sales have been growing at
nearly 30% each year, twice as fast as the overall
advertising spending in China. 2) Online population has
expanded at over 30% each year, vs. low single digital
growth rate for TV audiences in China.
• Unlike the US, which has dominant offline retailers (e.g.,
Walmart), China’s retail market is still highly fragmented.
Chinese online shopping leaders, such as Dangdang and
Taobao, have thus captured substantial market share from
their offline rivals. For instance, Taobao attracted 170mn
registered customers by the end of 2009, jumping 2.2
times over the past two years and up from nil six years ago.
We attribute such robust growth to several factors:
1) lots of Chinese consumers reduced budgets during the
global financial crisis. They are often attracted to Taobao,
which generally offers products at 30-40% discounts
relative to any comparable offline item, on our observation.
2) Taobao offers 50-100 times more items, as defined by
SKU (stock keeping units), than the leading offline retail
chain in China, on our estimates. 3) It is convenient to
order from Taobao, which often delivers your ordered
goods to your doorstep in next one or two days. We note
that Taobao single-handedly contributed nearly half of the
total package deliveries in China in 2009.
• Online consumer spending should outpace offline
spending in China, as: 1) nearly a quarter of Chinese
Internet users have college degrees, 5 times the level for
the general Chinese public. 2) On our estimates, over
60% of Chinese Internet users are under the age of 30.
Thanks to the “one child policy”, these kids are often the
“monopolies” of their families. They typically enjoy the
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