2010年4月印度零售行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：66
        【目录或简介】：
Action
While we remain Bullish on the Indian retail sector, we believe players with strong
execution skills and brand equity are likely to be key beneficiaries. We initiate
coverage of Pantaloon Retail with a BUY rating. We maintain our BUY rating on
Titan and advise investors to increase exposure to these stocks.
 Catalysts
Growth of organised retailing over the medium term will likely be led by increasing
penetration levels, favourable demographics, rising incomes and consumerism.
Anchor themes
Organised retail is still relatively underpenetrated at ~10% of the overall retail pie
(versus >80% in developed markets and >30% in emerging markets): we believe
the long-term opportunity is very exciting. We see sustained growth of the
organised retail pie over the near to medium term.
Much more in store
 Organised retail to witness robust growth
Organised retail penetration was ~10% and is expected to touch ~20% by 2020F,
according to Images India Retail 2009. We believe this structural growth will be
supported by favourable demographics and rising demand. Over the next few
years, as income levels continue to rise and consumption habits change on
account of rising aspirations, the retail industry is likely to be the key beneficiary, in
our view.
 Industry in a transformation phase
Shrugging off the turbulence witnessed in the recent past, the retail industry now
appears to be firmly back on a growth path, with same-store growth now touching
8-9%. We believe the industry is now entering a transformation phase. Companies
are looking at smaller formats to achieve deeper penetration in existing markets.
Moreover, growth is likely to be steady, but we expect it to moderate from the
build-out phase on account of: 1) the base catching up, 2) players focusing more
on steady and profitable expansion, and 3) focus shifting to penetration from scale
and consequently formats becoming smaller.
 We are BULLISH on F&B category and consumer discretionary
We are Bullish on players leveraged to the F&B category where the penetration
level of organised retail is low, but the share of the consumer wallet is big. We also
like the discretionary category, such as watches, jewellery, footwear and apparel
etc., which we expect will gain penetration and where demand drivers are in place.
 Market leader Pantaloon Retail to be a long-term winner
With an improved balance sheet, strong execution capabilities and the benefit of
being the incumbent player, we expect Pantaloon Retail (PRIL) to be a winner in
the long term. We believe that PRIL will deliver a 48% earnings CAGR over
FY10E-12E. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a price target of INR553,
representing 35% potential upside from current levels. We maintain our BUY rating
on Titan with a price target of INR2,250 (18% potential upside).
Contents
Industry snapshot 3
Key reasons to buy PRIL 4
Key reasons to buy Titan 4
Retail industry in a transformation phase 5
Modern retail now appears to be back on a growth path 5
Mapping the current Indian retail scene 9
Mapping the segmental opportunity 10
A three-part story – from boom to bust to boom again 12
Industry in a boom phase 12
The key driving forces 12
Dynamics support medium term stable growth 15
Recession: From boom to bust 16
Growth now steadily coming back … 20
India: A gateway to the world 23
Mapping the international presence in the country 23
Format offerings 23
Key risk factors 25
Internal security 25
Policy risk 25
Retail space development 25
Underdeveloped supply chain 25
Latest company views
Pantaloon Retail India 26
Titan Industries 54

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