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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C HSeptember 2011China Economics Chartbook: Broad-based Moderation inEconomic Activity
Table of Contents
1.
Overview – Broad-based Moderation in Economic Activity 4
2.
Real Economic Activity – Trimming 2012 Growth on Worsened External Outlook 5-7
3.
Sentiment and Leading Indicators – Softened Further 8-16
4.
Price Developments – CPI Peaking; PPI Stabilizing 17-19
5.
Monetary Policy Indicators – Growth Supportive While Inflation Restrictive 20-23
6.
Fiscal Policy Indicators – Less Expansionary in Year 2011 24-26
7.
Investment – Strong FAI Growth Supported by Manufacturing Capex 27-30
8.
Industrial Production, Sales, Inventory and Productivity – Growth Moderation 31-37
9.
Employment, Income, and Consumption – Stable and Resilient 38-44
10.
External Trade and FDI – Imports Growth to Outpace Exports Growth 45-54
11.
Foreign Reserves – Waning Hot Money Inflow 56-57
12.
Exchange Rate – Stabilizing RMB Appreciation Expectations 58
13.
Financial and Property Markets – Slower Growth in Property Prices 59-64
14.
Recent China Economics Reports 65