Investor Sentiment and Corporate Finance: Micro and Macro (182 K)

Owen A. Lamont, Jeremy C. Stein

NBER Working Paper No. 11882 Issued in December 2005 NBER Program(s): CF

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We document that net equity issuance is considerably more sensitive to aggregate stock returns and Q's than to firm-level stock returns and Q's. Very similar patterns also emerge when we look at merger activity. In light of earlier work (Campbell 1991, Vuolteenaho 2002) which finds that aggregate stock returns are less informative about future cashflows than are firm-level stock returns--and thus, potentially more strongly influenced by investor sentiment--these results suggest that both equity issuance and mergers are to a significant extent driven by market-timing considerations, as opposed to by purely fundamental factors.