发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年1季度全球宏观经济图表
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
The outlook for the global economy has continued a largely
improving trend over the past few months, encouraging
modest upward revisions to growth expectations for 2010
(page 10). Certainly, the improvements in measures of risk
aversion as well as the overall financial conditions (page 3,
5) are consistent with continued recovery. Improving
business surveys (page 11) and sizeable increases in world
trade (page 34) are further key positives.
The story seems especially encouraging for emerging
markets - led by Asia - where together with rising net trade,
real spending growth has picked up smartly (page 16). For
the developed markets, however, there are reasons to remain
cautious. The recent run of data from most of the developed
markets has been disappointing (page 37). Labour market
stress (page 17), housing sector adjustments (page 26) and
equity market reverses (page 38) will do little to bolster
weak consumer confidence and spending (page 15),
especially as sovereign risk concerns force governments to
ease off the fiscal stimulus pedal. That concerns over the
sustainability of the fiscal positions now relate more to the
developed rather than developing markets is, we believe, a
significant change brought about by the past crisis. Fiscal
concerns will remain as a source of volatility for many
months yet.
Weak inflationary pressures (page 19) as well as the
existence of large excess capacity in central bank
communications have discouraged expectations of any early
monetary tightening (page 31) in the G3, even as some
developed country central banks have started ‘exiting’ the
extraordinary stimulus provided during the crisis. The
picture is slightly different across emerging markets, where
solid growth and some build up in inflationary pressures are
raising the prospect of some early action from the major EM
central banks.
1. Credit indicators 3
2. GDP growth 7
3. Industry 11
4. Consumer indicators 14
5. Labour market 17
6. Prices & wages 19
7. Commodities 23
8. Housing 25
9. Monetary indicators 28
10. Trade & exchange rates 32
11. Surprise indices 37
12. Equity markets 38
Disclosure appendix 42
Disclaimer 43