发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：78
【目录或简介】：
We’re back
Asia made up all the losses. The recession, as dramatic as it was, is now fading from memory. Consider
this. Output for the region is now well above its previous peak; more people have jobs in Singapore today
than before the bust; China buys more now from its neighbours than it ever has; after a slump; Indian
consumers are now buying cars in all time record numbers; more tourists visit Thailand nowadays than at
any point in the past; more wine is now sold at auction in Hong Kong than in the entire United States;
after decades of being a side show, property in Taipei is suddenly hot again; never have so many Koreans
purchased foreign luxury cars since the thing was invented. The list goes on. You get the picture.
What explains such a breathtaking rebound? Policy stimulus, and sound banks. Plain and simple. But this
does not mean that growth will languish once governments cut back their spending and interest rates are
tweaked up. The cycle has become self-sustaining. As in any recovery, restocking is providing the initial
kick, and may last for another two quarters. Beyond this, demand needs to be maintained in the West, to
be sure. But we do not expect that a double dip there could derail Asia’s trajectory. Worries remain, of
course, including the massive fiscal debt that advanced countries have built up. Yet, interest rates are
likely to stay low for a good time longer, giving Asia another shot in the arm as capital flows from West
to East in search for higher yields.
China leads the way. The export engine has recovered and shortages of labour are now reported in coastal
areas previously battered by the global storm. This adds another cylinder to China’s engine that is already
firing at high velocity. Wage increases are spreading through the economy, helping consumers to sustain their
shopping spree while government programmes are gradually reducing incentives to save. Cars and electronics
seem to top the shopping list, but property is becoming a hot commodity as well. However, we think talk
of an imminent collapse in the real estate market is overblown. Local bubbles, yes – a national one, no.
Still, policymakers need to tug the reins more forcefully in China to prevent the engine from overheating.
In India, too, growth is getting a little hot. Inflation has soared already, but is now starting to pull back as
food prices, especially, return to earth after last year’s drought. The Reserve Bank, nonetheless, is still on
track to push rates higher, and it should: excess capacity has already vanished and demand does not appear
to be slowing. Growth in the country may receive another kick when firms decide to increase investment.
This is good for the budget, but a little worrisome for inflation down the road. More rate hikes are needed,
and more are likely come through here than anywhere else in Asia, but whether officials will deliver remains
to be seen.
As in India, headline inflation has recently slowed across Asia. But, this does not mean the topic is off the
table. Food costs, primarily, were the swing factor here in past months, and they might yet start to rise
again if local demand continues to soar. Core prices, meanwhile, are still accelerating, whether in India or
elsewhere. This need not lead to a blow-out of inflation, but it signals that price pressures remain present
and could quickly bubble up again if growth stays above trend. Asia feels, with respect to inflation at
least, a little tightly wound. Cooling things down with a firmer push on the brake would help prevent the
coil from cutting loose.
Even if inflation is, for the most part, still in the comfort zone, policymakers need to heed another risk.
Asset bubbles – you may have heard us say this before – are on their way unless rates go up. The latest
fad in Asia, using regulatory tightening instead of monetary tightening, will not prevent asset prices from
pushing higher and higher. Tweaking, say, loan-to-value ratios may have a short-term effect, but the
impact quickly fizzles. The cost of capital is what matters in the long run, and this is still too low. Asia
needs to bite the bullet if it wants to avoid another cycle of bubbles and busts: as soothing as high growth
now feels, it needs to be restrained by higher interest rates, and appreciating exchange rates, to sustain it.
China and India lead the pack, in size as well as growth. The biggest upgrade, however, came in the small,
open economies such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. As the global cycle turns from
sour to sweet, it is these high-beta ones that get the biggest lift. In Japan, too, we pushed our forecast higher
with rising trade, but the country’s alpha is still too low to put the economy entirely out of its funk.
Key forecasts 4
Monetary & fiscal policy
assumptions 5
Taking the temperature 6
Don’t get used to it 6
Lights still green 8
Putting it all together 10
Inflation, still lukewarm 11
Time to cool off 14
Is inflation global or local? 14
How loose is policy, really? 17
What should they do? 19
China: Still heating up 22
Is inflation a real risk? 22
Policy tightening: what’s next? 29
GDP 32
Inflation 33
Industrial production &
unemployment 34
Consumption & saving 35
Investment 36
Trade 37
Exchange rates & interest
rates 38
Country profiles 39
Australia 40
China 42
Hong Kong SAR 44
India 46
Indonesia 48
Japan 50
South Korea 52
Malaysia 54
New Zealand 56
Pakistan 58
Philippines 60
Singapore 62
Sri Lanka 64
Taiwan 66
Thailand 68
Vietnam 70
Disclosure appendix 74
Disclaimer 75
Contents