发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
China: Moderation in Activity
The latest economic data release for April continues to
suggest that the “Goldilocks” scenario is on track. The
further slowdown of fixed-asset investment reflects a
gradual policy exit is underway. Meanwhile, industrial
production and retail sales held up well, buoyed by
strong external demand and improving consumer
confidence. While CPI inflation will likely creep up in the
coming months, we continue to believe the overall
inflation outlook will be rather benign for the year, with
CPI inflation peaking around mid-year. In the light of the
recent Greek sovereign debt crisis and the expected
postponement in policy tightening around the globe, we
have now changed our call for one rate hike in 1H10 to
no more than one rate hike in 2H10.
Hong Kong: No Sign of Capital Outflows
The latest monetary data suggest a rebound in our proxy
of the total liquidity stock in March. Ample liquidity has
continued to give support to asset prices in Hong Kong,
notwithstanding concerns over monetary tightening (in
China as well as rest of the world), administrative
measures (in China) and policies to cool the property
sector in Hong Kong. We shall continue to monitor
changes in monetary conditions conscientiously, and we
reiterate that the stock of excess liquidity accumulated
since late 2008 is considerable, offering a meaningfully
sizable buffer for outflows before interest rates would
come under significant upward pressure.
Taiwan: Inflation Pressure in Wholesale Prices
The strong external demand from neighboring
economies and the rising international raw material
prices are already causing upward pressure on
wholesale prices, while the relatively slow recovery in
domestic demand led to benign inflation in consumer
prices, squeezing domestic margins.