用rats做的多元dcc,问题1:不收敛的原因;问题2:分析波动溢出效应是用A和B,还是DCC(1)\DCC(2);问题3:最后3个检验似乎矛盾,为何?
结果如下:
MV_GARCH, DCC - Estimation by BFGS
NO CONVERGENCE IN 72 ITERATIONS
LAST CRITERION WAS 0.0000000
SUBITERATIONS LIMIT EXCEEDED. ESTIMATION POSSIBLY HAS STALLED OR MACHINE ROUNDOFF IS MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS DIFFICULT.
TRY HIGHER SUBITERATIONS LIMIT, TIGHTER CVCRIT, DIFFERENT SETTING FOR EXACTLINE OR ALPHA ON NLPAR.
RESTARTING ESTIMATION FROM LAST ESTIMATES OR DIFFERENT INITIAL GUESSES MIGHT ALSO WORK
Usable Observations 866
Log Likelihood 6949.01281941
Variable Coeff Std Error T-Stat Signif
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1. GT{4} 0.885577 0.021676 40.85532 0.00000000
2. JX{4} -0.014291 0.131407 -0.10875 0.91340019
3. Constant -0.000623 0.001040 -0.59876 0.54933498
4. GT{4} -0.001375 0.001740 -0.79017 0.42942705
5. JX{4} 0.765839 0.002992 255.95305 0.00000000
6. Constant -0.000376 0.000015 -25.06304 0.00000000
7. C(1) -0.000000 0.000000 -0.19578 0.84478066
8. C(2) -0.000000 0.000000 -65.80046 0.00000000
9. A(1) 2.069645 0.328522 6.29986 0.00000000
10. A(2) 2.719095 0.684194 3.97416 0.00007063
11. B(1) 0.412065 0.023127 17.81744 0.00000000
12. B(2) 0.083766 0.222235 0.37693 0.70622769
13. DCC(1) 0.258632 0.839070 0.30824 0.75790211
14. DCC(2) 0.000000 0.703484 2.26233e-14 1.00000000
Chi-Squared(2)= 93.207114 or F(2,*)= 46.60356 with Significance Level 0.00000000
Chi-Squared(1)= 0.095010 with Significance Level 0.75790211
Chi-Squared(1)= 5.118146e-28 with Significance Level 1.00000000