[外行报告] 瑞士信贷--全球生物技术行业研究报告2008年7月 [推广有奖]

Group Looks Good Into Earnings: DNA, AMGN,
and CELG Poised to Beat
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Large-cap biotech looks healthy into earnings: With 2Q08 earnings expected to
be down across multiple sectors due to the US economic slowdown, biotech looks
particularly attractive given its independence from the broader economy. Add positive
fundamentals, such as product launches in the US (e.g. Avastin breast) and Europe
(e.g. Revlimid, Atripla) or other company specific benefits (e.g. no label change for
Aranesp in 2Q), and we think 2Q08 earnings is likely to be positive for the large cap
biotech group. That said, the group has already had a strong rally following last
week’s release of IMS sales data although we think there is room to move higher.
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DNA (Neutral, $80 PT) could be the big winner, but Rituxan IMS strength seems
odd. IMS data suggests all of Genentech’s key products are poised to beat. While
Avastin is the most important driver, its growth is least surprising given the approval in
breast. Rituxan has had tepid growth recently and we wonder whether the up-tick
represents a meaningful change in demand. Herceptin’s strength may be due in part
to a price increase. With the recent move we are not sure we would chase the stock
up here and would prefer to be a buyer on weakness in the low $70s.
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AMGN (Outperform, $56 PT) helped by no label change. An expected decline in
Aranesp sales was delayed by FDA’s inaction on the label and as a result earnings
are likely to beat expectations. We still expect Aranesp sales to ultimately decline
when the label is updated with a new label is updated and European sales are also
likely to be impacted by the recent label update. Regardless, 3Q08 performance is
going to depend on the denosumab FREEDOM results, not Aranesp sales.
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CELG (Outperform, $78 PT) momentum should continue. While Celgene has had
a big move following the failed Dacogen trial (that prompted our recent upgrade to
Outperform), we think the positive momentum could continue with a strong quarter.
Although tracking quarterly sales for Celgene is difficult, trends suggest that Vidaza
has been gaining momentum and Revlimid should benefit from the European launch.
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GILD (Outperform, $57 PT) concerns for quarter overdone. Gilead shares have
been under pressure as investors are concerned that stocking by government
purchasers in 1Q08 will pressure 2Q08 numbers. With the stock off its highs, IMS
share gains ahead of our expectations, and a typically very conservative
management team, we are less concerned about the quarter.
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BIIB (Neutral, $62 PT). Our focus remains on PML risk in second half. Tysabri
has been doing very well since its re-launch and we estimate over 30,000 patients on
drug for 2Q08. However, Biogen still faces the overhang of another PML case, which
we believe is heightened in the second half, leading us to remain cautious.

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