[外行报告] 2010年4月北美铜矿行业研究报告 [推广有奖]

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北美铜矿行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：26
        【目录或简介】：
In the current copper price environment,
we believe the miners could pay
significant dividends
 Our preferred dividend play is SCCO,
and we believe that FCX and FM may
pay one-time dividends in 2010
 Downgrading SCCO and GMexico to
N(V) from OW(V) on share price
appreciation, remain OW (V) on FM; we
raise TPs on FM, FCX, and TCKb
A different yield play: At end-2008 and early 2009, most
mining companies were in survival mode, as the M&A
activities of 2007 and early 2008 came back to haunt the
companies in a weak metals price environment. Fast forward
to April 2010, and the same miners have cleaned up their
balance sheets, and in some cases like Teck Resources,
regained investment grade on their debt, and could have
significant levels of free cash flow.
The high level of free cash flow, beyond the need for
sustained capital expenditures, and access to debt markets at
relatively cheap terms, should allow the miners to pay
substantial dividends in some cases. We believe that yieldminded
investors could take positions in companies like
Southern Copper, which we see as the highest dividend
payer. Should Freeport and Teck increase dividends,
investors might also be attracted to those stocks. In our
opinion, the companies most likely to pay special dividends
in 2010 are First Quantum and Freeport, as both have done
so in the past.
We remain Overweight (V) on First Quantum shares. We
downgrade Southern Copper and Grupo México to Neutral
(V) from Overweight (V) on valuation, as the shares have
risen significantly. We remain Neutral (V) on Freeport
McMoRan and Teck Resources, the companies with the least
organic growth.