Winbugs实现贝叶斯MCMC出现 trap undefined real resultlist问题，请教下大家-经管之家官网！

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Winbugs实现贝叶斯MCMC出现 trap undefined real resultlist问题，请教下大家

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model{for(iin1:I){cases~dpois(mu);log(mu)<-log(pyr)+alphac[age]+gammac[period]+betac[cohort];}alphamean[1]<-0.0;alphaprec[1]<-taua*1.0E-6;alphamean[2]<-0.0;alphaprec[2]<-taua*1.0E-6;for(ain3 ...

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model
{
for (i in 1:I) {
cases ~ dpois(mu);
log(mu) <- log(pyr)+alphac[age]+gammac[period]+betac[cohort];
}
alphamean[1] <- 0.0;
alphaprec[1] <- taua*1.0E-6;
alphamean[2] <- 0.0;
alphaprec[2] <- taua*1.0E-6;
for (a in 3:A){
alphamean[a] <- 2*alpha[a-1]-alpha[a-2];
alphaprec[a] <- taua;
}
for (a in 1:A) {
alpha[a] ~ dnorm(alphamean[a],alphaprec[a]);
}
taua ~ dgamma(1.0E-3,1.0E-3);
for(a in 1:A) {
ivec[a] <- a-(A+1)/2;
aivec[a] <- ivec[a] * alpha[a];
alphac[a] <- alpha[a]-ivec[a] * sum(aivec[])/(A*(A+1)*(A-1)/12);
}
gammamean[1] <- 0.0;
gammaprec[1] <- taup*1.0E-6;
gammamean[2] <- 0.0;
gammaprec[2] <- taup*1.0E-6;
for (p in 3:PP){
gammamean[p] <- 2*gamma[p-1]-gamma[p-2];
gammaprec[p] <- taup;
}
for (p in 1:PP){
gamma[p]~ dnorm(gammamean[p],gammaprec[p]);
gammac[p]<-gamma[p]-mean(gamma[1:P]);
}
taup ~ dgamma(1.0E-3,1.0E-3);
betamean[1] <- 0.0;
betaprec[1] <- tauc*1.0E-6;
betamean[2] <- 0.0;
betaprec[2] <- tauc*1.0E-6;
for (c in 3:CC){
betamean[c] <- 2*beta[c-1]-beta[c-2];
betaprec[c] <- tauc;
}
for (c in 1:CC){
beta[c]~ dnorm(betamean[c],betaprec[c]);
betac[c]<-beta[c]-mean(beta[1:C]);
}
tauc~ dgamma(1.0E-3,1.0E-3);
for(a in 1:A){
for(p in 1:PP){
rate[a,p]<-100000*exp(alphac[a]+gammac[p]+betac[A+p-a])}}
}
#DATA
list(I=540, A=18, P=30, C=47, PP=31, CC=48,cases=c(0,0,0,5,7,29,44,113,186,261,348,393,500,639,550,389,181,52,0,0,0,1,5,27,59,93,172,301,409,399,476,634,530,424,200,60,0,1,0,1,3,16,61,110,172,323,412,463,498,637,605,438,190,71,0,0,0,3,3,27,52,100,181,278,395,438,463,635,628,468,225,63,0,0,0,0,5,20,61,82,185,290,431,510,501,617,651,510,267,92,0,0,0,2,6,20,44,112,191,280,430,527,512,616,628,517,292,92,0,0,0,1,3,13,53,113,218,273,443,573,565,605,667,508,287,121,0,0,0,2,4,17,50,107,195,290,455,631,606,591,650,499,303,143,0,0,0,2,6,16,32,121,185,265,513,654,589,608,658,525,253,129,0,0,0,0,2,10,28,107,195,308,456,648,671,613,698,558,311,144,0,0,0,0,1,6,42,130,172,297,492,754,848,734,774,651,388,210,0,0,0,0,2,14,34,103,195,327,547,715,939,816,738,728,435,180,0,0,0,2,4,12,32,92,198,338,471,732,918,874,728,670,426,206,0,0,0,0,5,4,28,76,225,299,455,730,924,872,744,641,433,203,0,0,0,1,3,8,22,68,181,261,438,713,912,898,792,652,453,259,0,0,0,0,2,8,24,68,184,290,466,727,979,1028,764,705,489,247,0,0,0,0,3,7,22,62,141,282,420,706,938,1040,846,671,526,270,0,0,0,0,6,10,20,57,132,277,460,682,961,1063,864,658,487,278,0,0,0,1,4,9,26,52,121,313,434,643,941,1117,948,641,476,362,0,0,0,2,1,7,17,54,118,322,452,661,932,1095,985,720,474,355,0,0,0,0,3,8,21,43,109,244,432,614,911,1099,1037,732,506,344,0,0,0,1,3,5,19,46,98,229,429,631,881,1089,1096,742,530,361,0,0,0,0,3,13,18,35,85,198,459,637,826,1156,1195,829,544,391,0,0,0,0,0,9,21,48,82,202,480,612,854,1127,1137,846,522,409,1,0,1,0,4,3,18,34,63,153,441,536,764,1029,1094,912,481,394,0,0,0,1,1,3,9,33,70,153,389,627,869,1112,1231,1020,533,385,0,0,1,2,4,10,17,41,73,165,359,661,913,1192,1264,1024,604,439,0,0,0,1,3,7,20,38,72,124,332,659,849,1024,1246,1150,646,448,0,0,0,0,1,3,15,43,71,134,326,714,833,1105,1329,1186,701,470,0,0,0,1,2,8,7,32,57,123,257,640,834,1096,1340,1162,790,434), pyr=c(435777,465372,408915,382108,408674,462734,497737,440534,394683,344776,261848,185488,150212,128602,93232,54876,24191,8900,415471,473491,419609,390233,394214,438741,504699,447118,398672,356051,279723,193612,149812,130904,96503,57703,25915,9654,396290,481763,430628,398605,380297,416221,511891,453802,402722,367735,298828,202093,149427,133247,99890,60677,27767,10472,384499,460065,438480,408077,388186,403223,487817,461647,409904,372403,308989,216140,156417,133344,102247,63372,29487,11410,373082,439486,446481,417806,396291,390631,465028,469700,417219,377162,319546,231175,163737,133452,104659,66188,31313,12433,362024,419968,454632,427799,404618,378432,443453,477968,424671,382014,330514,247266,171398,133575,107128,69128,33253,13551,351318,401453,462938,438062,413171,366615,423024,486459,432263,386961,341911,264487,179421,133710,109656,72200,35312,14773,340947,383890,471400,448603,421957,355167,403681,495182,439997,392004,353754,282919,187819,133859,112244,75408,37499,16108,330863,371838,449909,456397,428612,360540,389848,471066,447754,399250,358728,292750,200800,140169,112596,77589,39502,17319,321078,360184,429551,464336,435385,366062,376492,448287,455726,406634,363805,302974,214686,146777,112962,79834,41613,18620,362142,406257,475093,532595,478785,415650,415421,491682,515384,459814,416870,362036,272674,182181,136075,98630,53153,25211,350905,393971,454844,540680,486656,419203,401268,467777,528386,468259,420446,373025,289637,191807,136142,101308,56075,26878,339700,382640,435490,547347,491812,424776,387485,445923,541847,474090,424372,384237,307528,201493,137230,104140,58831,28554,333582,372301,422306,528321,501925,431863,392418,431348,524011,480836,432042,390207,317242,216561,143280,105468,60885,30368,328089,362226,409942,508340,512659,440978,398364,416700,502306,492681,439993,395680,328341,231810,150297,106420,62962,32526,323098,351740,398317,488966,525165,450379,404284,403492,480625,506456,448022,401197,339281,247923,157694,107219,65224,34752,318221,341753,386765,470300,538543,460068,409976,391086,458511,520643,457492,406519,350400,264299,166676,107843,67594,37332,312897,332024,375694,450185,550599,471433,416756,379485,438789,536311,465437,412915,362573,281608,175996,109149,69846,39472,312484,326241,366011,438109,529007,480532,422183,383694,424080,517698,470899,419167,368234,290714,189264,114707,71580,42119,312357,320796,356208,425368,508646,488736,429691,388601,408986,495421,481189,425573,373461,300916,202716,121055,73107,44980,312429,315857,347037,413013,492275,497524,437582,394053,396545,476607,494056,432264,379119,312242,219554,128966,74595,48518,312442,310724,337268,400248,472854,505443,445734,398543,383826,452426,506359,439948,383997,322292,232937,136784,75565,51509,312075,306143,327260,386359,450799,514728,453390,403833,370954,429151,519058,445524,389890,332503,246100,144603,77374,53827,312048,301183,317562,375633,429577,522187,462962,407701,357913,405984,531687,450543,395856,342429,258737,152802,78876,56915,311939,296305,308207,363284,410113,528722,471311,413693,345419,382113,539077,460169,401903,352019,271963,160417,80688,59838,302675,311640,317110,365006,414115,459619,484362,427004,388580,391310,475983,477945,418424,359103,282167,186485,94874,62657,297713,312117,312879,355335,401065,436314,491731,435402,392696,379345,448698,492595,429283,364689,292145,198735,101876,64795,290974,312033,308251,340799,386655,413141,495776,441663,396851,365346,421609,507738,432657,371088,301685,208754,108918,67506,285796,307898,308259,333884,377009,402087,479931,454592,400808,369897,408031,502305,433018,377895,309313,217487,118773,71562,280498,303263,308008,329370,365985,391743,462459,463366,410408,375586,393796,484199,444193,384879,316329,226717,128293,75678), age=c(1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18), period=c(1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30), cohort=c(18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,17,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,18,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,19,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,20,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,21,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,22,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,23,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,24,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,27,45,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28,46,45,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,47,46,45,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30)
)
#Initital values
list(taua=1, taup=2, tauc=3)
最后运行updata出现[img=0,1]file:///C:\Users\Administrator\Documents\Tencent Files\402226116\Image\Group\U9PY2ZHI){R9@K1EQ1XGE5I.png[/img][img=0,1]file:///C:\Users\Administrator\Documents\Tencent Files\402226116\Image\Group\U9PY2ZHI){R9@K1EQ1XGE5I.png[/img] trap undefined real resultlist这个错误，请教下大家这个问题出在哪了？非常感谢

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Winbugs实现贝叶斯MCMC出现 trap undefined real resultlist问题，请教下大家-经管之家官网！

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