The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century---By George Friedman(PDF)-经管之家官网！

经济学管理学金融学统计学

您当前的位置> 考研考博>>

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century---By George Friedman(PDF)

发布：qinsong | 分类：考研

关于本站

人大经济论坛-经管之家：分享大学、考研、论文、会计、留学、数据、经济学、金融学、管理学、统计学、博弈论、统计年鉴、行业分析包括等相关资源。
经管之家是国内活跃的在线教育咨询平台!

提供"微信号、微博、抖音、快手、头条、小红书、百家号、企鹅号、UC号、一点资讯"等虚拟账号交易，真正实现买卖双方的共赢。【请点击这里访问】

TOP热门关键词

专题页面精选

免费学术公开课,扫码加入

http://www.pinggu.name/attachment/201008/10/249930_1281459610P6AA.jpg

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
By George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor
Number Of Pages: 288
Publication Date: 2010-01-26
ISBN-10 / ASIN: 0767923057
ISBN-13 / EAN: 9780767923057
Product Description:
A fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.
In his thought-provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR—the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm—focuses on what he knows best, the future. Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research. For example, The U.S.-Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia; China’s role as a world power will diminish; Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage; and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live (and fight wars). Riveting reading from first to last, The Next 100 Years is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us.
For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com
Amazon.com Review:
Amazon Best of the Month, January 2009: "Be Practical, Expect the Impossible." So declares George Friedman, chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies. Gathering information from its global network of operatives and analysts (drawing the nickname "the Shadow CIA"), Stratfor produces thoughtful and genuinely engrossing analysis of international events daily, from possible outcomes of the latest Pakistan/India tensions to the hierarchy of Mexican drug cartels to challenges to Obama's nascent administration. In The Next 100 Years, Friedman undertakes the impossible (or improbable) challenge of forecasting world events through the 21st century. Starting with the premises that "conventional political analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination" and "common sense will be wrong," Friedman maps what he sees as the likeliest developments of the future, some intuitive, some surprising: more (but less catastrophic) wars; Russia's re-emergence as an aggressive hegemonic power; China's diminished influence in international affairs due to traditional social and economic imbalances; and the dawn of an American "Golden Age" in the second half of the century. Friedman is well aware that much of what he predicts will be wrong--unforeseeable events are, of course, unforeseen--but through his interpretation of geopolitics, one gets the sense that Friedman's guess is better than most. --Jon Foro
Summary: The Future of Warmongering
Rating: 2
//The Next 100 Years// is founded on the understandings of geopolitics, a combination of geography and international political strength. This book is both chillingly true and exactly false; true in that much of our existing technologies will lead to some sort of space age weaponry and false in that his determinations of exact dates for military conflicts are too predetermined to ever manifest in the fashion that Friedman describes. But in visiting the basis for the extended text we find many of Friedman's foundations debatable if not outright unstable. His determinations that populations are declining, based on UN reports with no citations, are plausible. But his understanding of economics and the flows of capitalism seem either too effected by ideology or willingly ignorant of certain features. If the US continues to invest in new technology that does not mean we will need to open our borders for immigrant labor. Because of technology we've already seen the export of high-skill labor to other countries where wages are less than their US counterparts. And part of what defines capitalism's growth is a standard level of unemployment, it's a structural necessity. In short this book is full of future military conflicts which smack of both war and fear-mongering. But what else would one expect from the CEO of a Texas think tank?
Reviewed by Joe Atkins
Summary: Loved it - he had me with the Overature
Rating: 5
I admit I'm a big fan of scifi...but I loved this book. I just finished reading it and I'm starting it over again. Fascinating!
Summary: Too big a stretch?
Rating: 3
The first half of this book is excellent. The second half suffers a bit from the author's stretching to try and come up with a space war scenario set a hundred years in the future. He's clearly out of his technical depth there, but his overall take on the geopolitical patterns at play is fascinating
Summary: A Star Wars Novel Hidden Inside a Thoughtful Global Analysis
Rating: 3
This was more like two different books stuck together rather than a cohesive volume. It started off with serious analysis of world demography and geography and careened off into an amazing thought experiment about 21st Century Space Wars. I enjoyed the whole thing, but after he started talking about Battle Stars, I stopped taking the book seriously as reasoned analysis.
Also, it wasn't until the epilogue that Friedman confesses he ignores the global warming trend and ongoing progress in genetics and medical science. These trends are likely to have impacts as large or larger than the trends Friedman focuses on. Specifically global warming. Whether you accept the causes (and it doesn't sound like Friedman accepts the human-influenced component) or not, the earth is getting demonstrably warmer. So much so that it is quite possible that many countries (most importantly Russia) that currently lack warm water ports will suddenly have them. Also, a lot more of Canada could suddenly become habitable. I think demographic and geographic changes due to global warming are more likely to impact life in the 21st century than manned Battle Stars.
But, as Friedman notes, he and most of us won't be around to see whether or not these things come to pass.
Summary: the next hundred years
Rating: 4
This is a well thought out forecast of geo-political events for the the next century! Friedman's insights are sometimes surprizing. Often I find myself thinking "duh, of course! Why didn't I think of that?! Some predictions are more obvious than others like the eventual fall of global Chinese, Russian and European influence. Others are more provocative like the rise to center stage of Japanese, Turkey, Polandand ...Mexico! Who'd have thought it? Other fascinating and unsuspected developments in technology include extraterrestial capture of solar energy as the prime source of power, star war scenarios and the continued dominance of the US as the controlling superpower.
A must read!

「经管之家」APP：经管人学习、答疑、交友，就上经管之家！
免流量费下载资料----在经管之家app可以下载论坛上的所有资源，并且不额外收取下载高峰期的论坛币。
涵盖所有经管领域的优秀内容----覆盖经济、管理、金融投资、计量统计、数据分析、国贸、财会等专业的学习宝库，各类资料应有尽有。
来自五湖四海的经管达人----已经有上千万的经管人来到这里，你可以找到任何学科方向、有共同话题的朋友。
经管之家（原人大经济论坛），跨越高校的围墙，带你走进经管知识的新世界。
扫描下方二维码下载并注册APP

本文关键词：

本文论坛网址：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-881915-1-1.html

上一篇 | 四川师范大学市场营销理论与实务.ppt

下一篇 | 美国政府为什么买自己的债券

考研精彩帖子推荐更多

您可能感兴趣的文章

本站推荐的文章

人气文章

本文标题：The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century---By George Friedman(PDF)

本文链接网址：https://bbs.pinggu.org/jg/kaoyankaobo_kaoyan_881915_1.html

1.凡人大经济论坛-经管之家转载的文章,均出自其它媒体或其他官网介绍,目的在于传递更多的信息,并不代表本站赞同其观点和其真实性负责；
2.转载的文章仅代表原创作者观点,与本站无关。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本站证实,本站对该文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性，不作出任何保证或承若；
3.如本站转载稿涉及版权等问题,请作者及时联系本站,我们会及时处理。

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century---By George Friedman(PDF)-经管之家官网！

考研