2014CFA3级考生必看-【每日一练】-R9-002-经管之家官网！

When an investor extrapolates past data from a small sample size into a forecast this is most likely indicative of:
A) the recency bias.
B) fear of regret.
C) hindsight bias
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solution：A
Herding is when investors trade in the same direction or in the same securities, and possibly even trade contrary to the information they have available to them. Two behavioral biases associated with herding are the availability bias (a.k.a. the recency bias or recency effect) and fear of regret. In the availability bias, recent information is given more importance because it is most vividly remembered. It is also referred to as the availability bias because it is based on data that are readily available, including small data samples or data that do not provide a complete picture. In the context of herding, the recent data or trend is extrapolated by investors into a forecast.
Regret is the feeling that an opportunity has passed by and is a hindsight bias. The investor looks back thinking they should have bought or sold a particular investment (note that in the availability bias, the investor most easily recalls the recent positive performance). Regret can lead investors to buy investments they wish they had purchased, which in turn fuels a trend-chasing effect. Chasing trends can lead to excessive trading, which in turn creates short-term trends.
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