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15页 2006年12月7日发表 pdf文件 比较系统分析中国银行业的现状及未来展望

目录

China's banking sector: Ripe for the next stage?

Many positive and profound changes have occurred in China’s financial sector in the past 3 years. When DB Research published “China’s financial sector: Institutional framework and main challenges” in January 2004, scepticism abounded on the solvency of key Chinese banks, the health of the banking sector, and the future of banking sector reform.
China’s banking sector today is looking much better, with improving financial fundamentals and structural changes, particularly in the ownership structure. Several Chinese banks have been pursuing internal reform in earnest. The main aim of the reform has been to prevent past mistakes due to lending decisions made on the basis of relationships from happening again.
Plenty of challenges remain despite recent progress. Strengthening the credit function and internal support systems is crucial for the Chinese banks’ future success. Given current strong credit growth rates, capital adequacy should be raised further. Moreover, risk management, governance standards and credit
culture in general are still emerging and are yet to be tested when the economy slows.
More consolidation lies ahead. There are synergies to be gained from mergers and acquisitions of Chinese banks. For example, some joint stock banks may have stronger financials, but lack regional or national footprints. Some city commercial banks may have good local networks, but are less sound financially. As competition intensifies, consolidation will be inevitable.

WTO opening measures will have a positive long-term impact.
Competition for domestic bonds will certainly increase, but we do not expect an exodus of customers abandoning local banks for foreign banks. The latter still lack branch networks and are likely to initially concentrate on corporate banking areas such as loan syndication for large projects, treasury and private wealth management, as well as investment banking. Further out, we foresee more co-operations between foreign banks and sizeable local ones to tap into consumer banking, credit cards, and lending to local companies. These partnerships are expected to
help local banks expedite the upgrade in their internal systems as well as foster product innovation.

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