高盛全球能源（石油）行业分析（12年10月）
发布：tungt2sina | 分类：行业分析资源
关于本站
人大经济论坛-经管之家：分享大学、考研、论文、会计、留学、数据、经济学、金融学、管理学、统计学、博弈论、统计年鉴、行业分析包括等相关资源。
经管之家是国内活跃的在线教育咨询平台!
经管之家新媒体交易平台
提供"微信号、微博、抖音、快手、头条、小红书、百家号、企鹅号、UC号、一点资讯"等虚拟账号交易，真正实现买卖双方的共赢。【请点击这里访问】
TOP热门关键词
坛友互助群 |
扫码加入各岗位、行业、专业交流群 |
October 17, 2012
Global Roundtable
Global Energy: Oil – Under-delivery and technological innovation split the industry
Exploration and shale revolutionsovercome need for demand rationingThe current oil market is relatively tight, withinventories 8 mnbls below the five-year average,due to the impact of the Iran sanctions(1 mnbls/d), production issues in Syria and Sudan(600 kbls/d) and overall poor non-OPEC supplydelivery excl the US. However, the advent of shaleoil and ultra-deepwater are likely to lead to a morebalanced, rather than structurally tight market.
Low OPEC spare capacity points tovolatility in the short termWe estimate that OPEC spare capacity is currentlybelow 1 mnbls/d, and expect demand to pick upseasonally in 4Q12. This implies that we are likelyto experience a volatile market over the next threemonths with the skew to the upside.
2013-15 market likely to softenNon-OPEC supply growth is likely to pick up in2013-14 to over 1 mnbls/d, on our estimates, foronly the second time in over a decade. Thisshould lead to a moderate softening in the oilmarket, leading spare capacity up to 2.5 mnbls/d.
The industry is going at two speedsWe have never seen a bigger divergence of outlookin the global energy industry. This is exemplified bya substantial decline in returns and cash generationfor most of the legacy players (the majors currentlyneed US$116/bl to be free cash flow neutral aftercapex and dividends), while an unprecedented setof high-return investment opportunities areopening up to independent E&Ps and onlymarginally to some of the Majors.
New basins and unconventional liquidsremain our key investment themesWe indentify five key global investment themes:shale oil with scale, high-return growth, frontierexploration, infrastructure winners, and tighteningoil services capacity. Our global preferences are:ENI, BG, EOG Resources, Pioneer NaturalResources, Noble Energy, HollyFrontier, ONGC,Novatek, Panoro, Salamander, Aker Solutions,Technip, Schoeller-Bleckmann, Halliburton,Oceaneering and Basic Energy Services.
Downside risk in case of hard landingThe key risk to our call on crude prices is lowerthan-expected GDP growth.
免流量费下载资料----在经管之家app可以下载论坛上的所有资源，并且不额外收取下载高峰期的论坛币。
涵盖所有经管领域的优秀内容----覆盖经济、管理、金融投资、计量统计、数据分析、国贸、财会等专业的学习宝库，各类资料应有尽有。
来自五湖四海的经管达人----已经有上千万的经管人来到这里，你可以找到任何学科方向、有共同话题的朋友。
经管之家（原人大经济论坛），跨越高校的围墙，带你走进经管知识的新世界。
扫描下方二维码下载并注册APP
您可能感兴趣的文章
本站推荐的文章
人气文章
本文标题：高盛全球能源（石油）行业分析（12年10月）
本文链接网址：https://bbs.pinggu.org/jg/xingyefenxi_xingyefenxiziyuan_2115167_1.html
2.转载的文章仅代表原创作者观点,与本站无关。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本站证实,本站对该文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性，不作出任何保证或承若；
3.如本站转载稿涉及版权等问题,请作者及时联系本站,我们会及时处理。
