中国财政政策非线性稳定效应：理论和证据

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中国财政政策非线性稳定效应：理论和证据

【原文出处】管理世界

【原刊地名】京

【原刊期号】20102

【原刊页号】10～24

【分 类 号】F10

【分 类 名】国民经济管理

【复印期号】201006

【英文标题】The Non-linear Stabilization Effect of China's Fiscal Policy:

    Theory and Evidence

【标题注释】本文为国家社科基金项目(08CJL008)、国家自然科学基金项目(70873022)、浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y6080332)、浙江省优秀青年教师资助计划项目、浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地(财政学)的研究成果和2009年度中国经济学年会入选论文。此外，本文的研究还得到了复旦大学国家哲学社会科学“中国经济国际竞争力”创新基地以及上海市重点学科建设项目(B101)的慷慨资助。

【作 者】方红生/张军

【作者简介】方红生，浙江大学经济学院、浙江财经学院经贸学院；张军，复旦大学中国经济研究中心

【内容提要】本文考察了中国财政政策的非线性稳定效应并对其形成的可能机制进行了检验。基于现有文献和中国的现实，本文创造性地识别了可能会导致中国财政政策非线性或非凯恩斯效应的历史时期。接着本文构造了1978-2004年度和1998-2004年度两个面板数据集，前者很好地完成了对生成财政政策非线性或非凯恩斯效应的预期机制的检验并发现了非凯恩斯效应的证据；后者部分证实了劳动市场观点的假说，但并不能排除预期观点在生成非凯恩斯效应方面所起到的重要作用。最后，本文针对性地给出了一些具体的应付宏观经济不稳定的政策建议。

【摘 要 题】政策选择

【关 键 词】预期观点/劳动市场观点/非线性效应潜在时期的决定/经济衰退

【正 文】

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关键词：财政政策 中国财政 稳定效应 非线性 relationship 中国 理论 财政政策 非线性 稳定效应

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