微观研究揭示了生长的奇异起源

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摘要翻译：
P.W。安德森提出复杂性的概念是为了描述从许多微观主体的简单相互作用中产生和发展的宏观集体模式。在物理科学中，这一范式得到了系统的实施，并通过与现实的成功对抗得到了反复的证实。然而，在社会科学中，进行实验来验证它的可能性是有限的。在90年代，一系列戏剧性的政治和经济事件提供了这样做的机会。我们利用所得到的经验证据来验证一个简单的基于agent的替代经典的logistic动力学。来自波兰的自由化后经验数据证实了理论预测，即动态由奇异的罕见事件主导，这确保了系统的弹性和适应性。我们已经表明，增长是由少数几个单一的“增长中心”（图1）领导的，这些中心最初以巨大的速度发展（图3)，随后是向全国其他地区扩散的过程，并导致各县均为正增长率。除了我们的一般性正式方法的跨学科统一潜力之外，目前的工作揭示了“较软”的社会条件与其“硬”的经济后果之间强有力的因果关系。
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英文标题：
《Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth》
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作者：
Gur Yaari, Andrzej Nowak, Kamil Rakocy and Sorin Solomon
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability        数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述：Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件：数据处理与存储；测量方法；统计和数学方面，如参数化和不确定性。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  P.W. Anderson proposed the concept of complexity in order to describe the emergence and growth of macroscopic collective patterns out of the simple interactions of many microscopic agents. In the physical sciences this paradigm was implemented systematically and confirmed repeatedly by successful confrontation with reality. In the social sciences however, the possibilities to stage experiments to validate it are limited. During the 90's a series of dramatic political and economic events have provided the opportunity to do so. We exploit the resulting empirical evidence to validate a simple agent based alternative to the classical logistic dynamics. The post-liberalization empirical data from Poland confirm the theoretical prediction that the dynamics is dominated by singular rare events which insure the resilience and adaptability of the system. We have shown that growth is led by few singular "growth centers" (Figure 1), that initially developed at a tremendous rate (Figure3), followed by a diffusion process to the rest of the country and leading to a positive growth rate uniform across the counties. In addition to the interdisciplinary unifying potential of our generic formal approach, the present work reveals the strong causal ties between the "softer" social conditions and their "hard" economic consequences.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0803.2201

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关键词：Quantitative interactions Consequences Mathematical Applications rate 理论 集体 经济 economic