新冠肺炎:$R_0$在疫情较大的地方较低

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摘要翻译：
我们使用来自伦巴第的每日数据，伦巴第是意大利受新冠肺炎疫情影响最大的地区，在每个城市分别校准SIR模型。这些都由同一个卫生系统覆盖，在我们关注的封锁后阶段，都受到同样的社交距离规定的约束。我们发现，在所分析的时期开始时，病例数较多的城市的扩散率较低，这不能归咎于群体免疫。特别是，估计的基本繁殖数($R_0$)与初始爆发规模之间存在稳健且非常显著的负相关，而$R_0$作为爆发规模的预测器的作用则相反。我们探索了对这一现象的不同可能解释，并得出结论，更多的病例会导致行为的改变，如在人群中更严格地采取社交距离措施，从而减少传播。这一结果要求透明、实时地分发详细的流行病学数据，因为这些数据影响到受疫情影响地区人口的行为。
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英文标题：
《COVID-19: $R_0$ is lower where outbreak is larger》
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作者：
Pietro Battiston, Simona Gamba
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution        种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

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英文摘要：
  We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model individually on each municipality. These are all covered by the same health system and, in the post-lockdown phase we focus on, all subject to the same social distancing regulations. We find that municipalities with a higher number of cases at the beginning of the period analyzed have a lower rate of diffusion, which cannot be imputed to herd immunity. In particular, there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number ($R_0$) and the initial outbreak size, in contrast with the role of $R_0$ as a \emph{predictor} of outbreak size. We explore different possible explanations for this phenomenon and conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This result calls for a transparent, real-time distribution of detailed epidemiological data, as such data affects the behavior of populations in areas affected by the outbreak.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07827

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关键词：Quantitative Reproduction explanations Contribution Biodiversity 肺炎 affected number outbreak lower