电晕大流行的遏制效率与控制策略 成本

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摘要翻译：
冠状病毒（新冠肺炎）的快速传播给政策制定者带来了衡量遏制战略有效性的问题，平衡了公共卫生考虑和社交距离措施的经济成本。我们引入了一个改进的流行病模型，我们称之为受控-SIR模型，在该模型中，疾病的繁殖率随着政治和社会反应的变化而动态变化。给出了解析解。该模型再现了超过疫情第一个高峰的大量地区和国家的官方新冠肺炎病例数。从现场数据中提取一个无偏反馈参数，并用于制定一个衡量遏制策略效率的指数（CEI指数）。给出了一系列国家的CEI值。对于受控SIR模型的两个变体，在整个流行病过程中评估了总医疗和社会经济成本的详细估计。成本包括医疗成本、社交距离的经济成本以及拯救生命的经济价值。在合理的参数下，严格的措施比不干涉政策更有效。基于当前病例数的战略导致的总成本远远高于基于流行病总体历史的战略。
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英文标题：
《Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic
  costs》
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作者：
Claudius Gros, Roser Valenti, Lukas Schneider, Kilian Valenti, Daniel
  Gros
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution        种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

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英文摘要：
  The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.00493

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关键词：Quantitative Reproduction Contribution Biodiversity QUANTITATIV 肺炎 成本 containment model 官方