《Autoregressive approaches to import--export time series II: a concrete
case study》
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作者:
Luca Di Persio, Chiara Segala
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最新提交年份:
2015
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英文摘要:
The present work constitutes the second part of a two-paper project that, in particular, deals with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. It is worth mentioning that this region is indubitably recognized as the core of the commercial engine of the whole Italian country. This is why our analysis has a concrete impact; it is based on real data, and this is also the reason why particular attention has been taken in treating the relevant economical data and in choosing the right methods to manage them to obtain good forecasts. In particular, we develop an approach mainly based on vector autoregression where lagged values of two or more variables are considered, Granger causality, and the stochastic trend approach useful to work with the cointegration phenomenon.
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中文摘要:
目前的工作构成了一个两篇论文项目的第二部分,该项目尤其涉及对计量经济学中使用的有效技术的深入研究,以便在意大利生产力最高的地区之一,即维罗纳省的具体框架内进行准确预测。值得一提的是,该地区无疑被认为是整个意大利国家商业引擎的核心。这就是为什么我们的分析会产生具体影响;它是基于真实数据的,这也是为什么在处理相关经济数据和选择正确的方法来管理这些数据以获得良好预测时特别注意的原因。特别是,我们开发了一种主要基于向量自回归的方法,其中考虑了两个或多个变量的滞后值、格兰杰因果关系,以及有助于处理协整现象的随机趋势方法。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类:Mathematics 数学
二级分类:Probability 概率
分类描述:Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory
概率论与随机过程的理论与应用:例如中心极限定理,大偏差,随机微分方程,统计力学模型,排队论
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