马克思说，事情发生总有规律的。周期性是规律的一种。单纯的研究周期性可能是在用长期的想法解决短期关注的问题，资本主义的ZF更替及其相关的问题就是一例。实体经济是所有的一切讨论的前提。澳洲经济的强劲发展跟矿业的稳健发展密不可分。以下是现任世行行长的一些想法，该不是空穴来风：
World Bank president criticizes western economic leadership source:
http://www.dbune.com/news/busine ... mic-leadership.html
Vittorio Hernandez - AHN News
Sydney, Australia (AHN)
World Bank President Robert Zoellick criticized Western economic leaders,Sunday, charging that they caused the loss of investor confidence.
Zoellick said at the Asia Society's yearly dinner in Sydney that fears about the state of leading Western economies caused the massive downturn in the global stock markets. He stated out that the convergence of events in Europe and the U.S., combined with fragilities in the nature of the recovery, placed the world in a new danger zone.
The events include the European debt contagion and the prolonged impasse in dealing with the U.S. debt limit, which led to the credit rating downgrade of Washington by Standard & Poor's.
Because of these developments, Western economies are experiencing slow growth while developing economies are experiencing a faster pace of economic expansion.
He described the response of the eurozone and leaders in the 17-nation bloc to the sovereign debt crisis and uncompetitive economies as "a day too late."
In the case of the U.S., Zoellick observed that the focus of cutting government spending was on discretionary items, not on programs such as Social Security.
Finance ministers from different countries made a similar warning in an article published in Financial Times. They said the biggest block to economic recovery was political, not economic. The ministers challenged eurozone leaders to take more steps to reassure the markets.
In particular, they asked leaders to show more commitment to greater fiscal integration and governance arrangements that would "avoid moral hazard and entrench fiscal responsibility."
World Bank President Zoellick: Markets are in 'New Danger Zone'source:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2 ... USTRE77D0V620110814
(Reuters) - The loss of market confidence in economic leadership in key countries like the United States and Europe coupled with a fragile economic recovery have pushed markets into a new danger zone, something that policymakers have to take seriously, the head of the World Bank said on Sunday.
Speaking at the Asia Society dinner in Sydney, Robert Zoellick also said the global economy was going through a multi-speed recovery, with developing countries now the source of growth and opportunity.
"What's happened in the past couple of weeks is there is a convergence of some events in Europe and the United States that has led many market participants to lose confidence in economic leadership of some of the key countries," he said.
"I think those events combined with some of the other fragilities in the nature of recovery have pushed us into a new danger zone. I don't say those words lightly ... so that policymakers recognize and take it seriously for what it is."
Zoellick said the process of dealing with the sovereign debt problem and some of the competitive issues in the euro zone have tended to be done "a day late," leaving markets worried that authorities may not be ahead of the problem or moving in the right direction.
"That (worry) has accumulated and so we're moving from drama to trauma for a lot of the euro zone countries," he said.
On the United States, Zoellick said it wasn't fears the world's biggest economy faced an imminent problem, but "frankly that markets are used to the United States playing a key role in the economic system and leadership."
He said efforts to cut U.S. government spending have so far been focused on discretionary spending as opposed to the entitlement program such as social security. "Until they make an effort on those programs, there is going to be continued skepticism about dealing with long-term spending."
Zoellick said while market confidence has been hit, the real issue was whether this will spread to business and consumer confidence, something that was still unclear.
"What is different from the world of the past is now emerging markets are sources of growth and opportunity. About half of global growth is represented by the developing world ... so this is a very rapid change in a relatively short span of time in historical terms," he added.
On China, Zoellick said the appreciation of the yuan would be constructive, especially in helping tackle the country's inflationary pressure.
On Australia, he said the country was in a much better position than other developed countries because it undertook structural reforms. On the fiscal side, he noted Australia's debt was only 7 percent of gross domestic product and taking advantage of its position in the Asia Pacific..
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