Capital flight of China’s wealthy gets ready for take-off

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中国资本外逃暗潮 Capital flight of China’s wealthy gets ready for take-off
英国《金融时报》 汉妮•桑德尔 报道

A casual visitor to Macao might be struck by the number of expensive watch shops along the streets of the former Portuguese enclave now under China’s control. The shops cater to Chinese tourists who aren’t really seeking the latest fashionable timepiece so much as a way to get money out of China. In many cases, the bejewelled baubles are paid for with a credit card, then promptly returned with the obliging shopkeeper refunding cash rather than negating the credit card transaction (albeit with a slight discount).	在已回归中国的前葡萄牙殖民地澳门，如果你是一名偶尔到此一游的观光客，你可能会对街头鳞次栉比的名表店留下深刻印象。这些商店迎合了一些内地游客的需要，这些游客其意并不在新款时尚名表，而是要借助买表这种方式把资金转移出中国。他们在购买那些镶着珠宝的浮华手表时，往往用信用卡付账，紧接着就会把表退回去，好心的店主会退给他们现金（但会扣掉少许金额），而不是取消信用卡交易。
In January, revenues at the casinos of Macao were up 35 per cent year on year, as a result of all the mainlanders flooding in to welcome the year of the water dragon. Such junkets are widely believed to be another way to get money out of China, evading the legal limit on cash taken out of the country (Rmb20,000/$3,100) by gambling on credit and then receiving any proceeds in (foreign currency) cash outside China itself. In Tokyo, bankers and property brokers speak in amazed whispers of Chinese nationals paying for real estate with debit cards. Meanwhile in Singapore, government officials say recently enacted measures to discourage property speculation are directed at the newly rich of China rather than the usual Indonesian tycoons.	1月份，澳门赌场收入同比上升35%，这是由于大量内地人为庆贺“水龙年”的到来而涌入此地赌场。人们普遍认为，这种旅游方式是把资金转移出中国的又一条途径。游客用信用卡上的钱赌博，然后在境外接收结算后的现金（外币），从而绕开有关携带出境的现金不得超过2万元人民币（合3100美元）的法定限制。在东京，银行人员和房地产中介惊奇地窃窃私语：中国人在这里买房竟然用借记卡付款。在新加坡，政府官员表示，近期出台的抑制房地产投机的举措是针对新兴起的中国富人，而不是以往的印尼大亨。
Capital flight out of China has been part of the landscape for many years. That money comes from a mix of party officials, the lucky executives of state-owned enterprises that have listed (especially outside China) and newly wealthy entrepreneurs. But in times of political transition the flows outside China become ever more intense. In October, the 18th Party Congress will take place, signalling the beginning of a series of changes at the top. Nobody knows what the consequences of such shifts entail as the protected lose their patrons.	资本外逃是中国许多年来一直存在的一个现象。外逃资金来自各色人等，包括中共官员、幸运的上市（特别是境外上市）国企高管以及新富起来的企业家。然而，在中国政治领导班子即将换届之际，资本外逃势头变得更加猛烈了。中共“十八大”将于今年10月召开，这将拉开领导班子换届的序幕。没有人知道，换届会产生什么结果。届时，许多目前受庇护的人将会失去靠山。
The money that flows out is the bolt-hole money, money that is not looking for the highest returns (which are still to be found at home) but the safest haven. Those flows reflect the insecurity of the wealthy. While some of their money is legitimate, some of it is not. Very few entrepreneurs will reveal where and how they got their seed capital, keeping the beginnings of their corporate empires shrouded in mystery. There are properties across urban China whose owners have not repaid their mortgages but banks don’t dare foreclose because of their powerful party connections.	外流资金寻求的不是最高额的回报（这种回报目前仍要在国内寻找），而是避风港。资金外流反映了富人们的不安全感。他们的有些资金是合法的，有些不是合法的。没有多少企业家愿意披露他们是从哪里、以什么方式获得原始资本的。他们的企业帝国是如何打下根基的？这个问题的答案依然笼罩在迷雾之中。中国各个城市都有许多这样的房产：房屋所有人不还房贷，而银行因为忌惮这些人在党内的强硬后台，不敢办理收房。
Wealthy Chinese have joined foreign investors in demanding more secure property rights which is fine for legitimate money but does not really work for the other kind.	中国富人加入了外国投资者的行列，要求获得更稳固的财产权。这对合法资金来说是好事，但对不合法资金来说就未必了。
The other side of the coin of the burgeoning fortunes of the elite of course is the rising discontent from the have-less and have-nots that arises precisely because of the sense that the money washing across China and into the region and across the pacific is mostly ill-gotten.	社会精英阶层财富迅速膨胀的另一面，自然是穷人和无产者不满情绪日益加剧。这种情绪恰恰源于以下认识：在中国大地上奔流、涌入亚太地区、越过太平洋的那些钱，大部分是非法所得。
The errors and omissions in China’s balance of payments ($60bn in 2010) suggest tens of billions might be involved in such capital flight though it is difficult to distinguish between hot money outflows and capital flight. Some of the discrepancy in the numbers is a result of foreign exchange arbitrage and some of it is more questionable flows.	中国国际收支余额（2010年为600亿美元）中的错误和遗漏表明，资本外逃的规模可能高达数百亿美元，尽管我们很难区分热钱流出和资本外逃。相关数目上存在的出入，部分是由于外汇套利，部分则是由于较为可疑的资金流动。
As sentiment about the renminbi grows more pessimistic, more money might leave China. Currently, there are lots of reasons why the prospects for renminbi appreciation have dimmed. The trade surplus is a fraction of what it used to be and the outlook for exports isn’t great.	随着投资者对人民币的看法变得较为悲观，流出中国的资金规模可能会进一步扩大。就目前来说，人民币升值前景变差有许多原因，包括贸易顺差远小于以往和出口前景不佳。
Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, expects the current account surplus to shrink from a probable $250bn last year to only $140bn this year. Mainland reserves dropped from $3.2bn to $3.18bn by the end of the year and may drop further, as China slowly shifts to a more domestic demand-led economy.	渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)驻香港经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示，去年中国经常账户盈余大概在2500亿美元左右，但今年可能减少到1400亿美元。去年底中国外汇储备从3.2万亿美元降至3.18万亿美元，今后还可能进一步下滑，原因是中国经济在缓慢转型，越来越多地依靠内需拉动。
Citing these factors, many of the smartest foreign exchange traders have reversed their bet on the swift appreciation of the Chinese currency. In December, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong dropped 6 per cent from November, the largest fall ever, reflecting broadened capital flows and more balanced current account dealings.	因为这几个因素，许多聪明的外汇交易员已经不再把宝押在人民币快速升值上。去年12月，香港的人民币存款环比下降6%，为历史最大跌幅，反映了资本流动扩大和经常账户往来更为均衡。
Mr Green notes that it is possible that hot money has been flowing out for years but in the past it has been overwhelmed by inflows and therefore was less visible. The visibility is a big part of the problem.	王志浩指出，热钱流出现象可能已经持续了许多年，但过去被资本流入的势头盖过了，所以看起来不明显。“可见性”是资本外流问题的一个重点。
Arguably the biggest challenges facing China now are more social than economic.	可以说，中国当前面临的最大挑战更多是在社会层面，而非经济层面。
Victor Shih, a US academic, has estimated that the liquid and property wealth of the top 1 per cent of the Chinese population ranges from a possible $2tn-$5tn. At the other end of the spectrum are those who are not even in the cash economy. The gap is too wide.	美国学者史宗瀚(Victor Shih)估计，中国人口中最富的1%的人的流动资产和房产价值总和在2万亿美元至5万亿美元之间。而处于另一个极端的人甚至还没有进入“现金经济”。差距实在太大了。
	译者/何黎

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