近来看了一片外文经济报道,看得不甚明白,请教高手。文章如下:
ave you ever seen the cartoon where in one panel there's a human being talking to a dog named Ginger, and in the next panel there's a depiction of what the dog actually hears: blah blah blah Ginger blah blah blah?
That's what I think of municipalities and the swaps and derivatives game that is so enthusiastically being pushed upon them by bankers.
They're talking and talking and talking to public officials. I worry that the officials are hearing blah blah blah you get this money blah blah blah.
Moody's Investors Service on Oct. 10 published a report, ``Evaluating the Use of Interest Rate Swaps by U.S. Public Finance Issuers.'' Boy, this is terrific. It's 30 pages long and includes details on effective swap policies, descriptions of floating-to-fixed and fixed-to-floating rate swaps, constant maturity and basis swaps, and page after page of the risk, risk, RISK of getting involved with these things.
In other words, blah blah blah.
Are the people who really need this, the local officials who decide yea or nay on getting into swaps, going to read it? And 30 densely-packed pages! Does Moody's know something we don't? Are they worried? On the other hand, if everyone is using swaps already, as their proponents contend, Gee, what's the point?
Regulation by IRS
The big worry is that issuers -- many, if not most of them -- are getting involved in things they don't understand. In some cases, they're being cheated. In others, they are exposing themselves and their taxpayers to financial risks they have no way to calculate.
This is a big concern. Unfortunately, there's no regulation of this area of the market. There's no one saying, Hey, wait a minute, on behalf of municipalities.
The only part of the federal government that has shown a real interest in the hottest area of public finance today is the Internal Revenue Service, which has audited a couple of dozen municipal-bond transactions featuring swaps and other derivatives and found them wanting.
The trouble with regulation by the IRS is that it is no regulation at all. That is, the IRS comes in and does an audit, and sorts everything out, and tells the issuer to pay up or the interest on its bonds will be considered taxable. The issuer invariably pays up, and the IRS moves on.
Issuer Disenchantment
Maybe the issuers get cash settlements from the bankers and financial advisers and lawyers who so carefully put together those transactions. Nobody knows.
And nobody knows what these issuers did that they shouldn't have, so nobody can benefit from their experience. That's just great, isn't it? The whole process goes on and on. What glimpses we have seen regarding what goes on behind the curtain in swaps- land have been contained in IRS letters that issuers have disclosed. Of course not all issuers disclose such things.
For the past decade or so, issuers from coast to coast have been engaging in swaps and other derivatives to hedge against the possibility of higher interest rates, among other things. The trouble is that rates haven't complied. Their move higher hasn't been as imminent as bankers have warned.
So what? So these issuers find themselves on the wrong end of the trade. Their swap isn't working out as they thought, and in some instances they are paying out far more than they collect. Combine that with deals that have gotten the IRS's attention, and maybe there are some very disenchanted and annoyed municipalities out there.
Hammersmith and Fulham
Every now and again a subscriber in the
Could such a thing happen here? ``In part because U.S. governmental swap practice grew up after the Hammersmith case, I think in most instances U.S. dealers have been careful to get enforceability opinions from recognized bond counsel before entering into swaps,'' commented Fredric Weber, a partner at Fulbright & Jaworski in Houston.
Kit Taylor, who was head of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board for almost three decades, said that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ``made sure they weren't going to have a revisitation of Hammersmith and Fulham,'' when they went around the country getting state law changes necessary to allow municipalities to engage in swaps.
So, it doesn't look like we will have such a broad-ranging renunciation of swaps in the
It may not look precisely like Hammersmith, but I can see a nice little boom in litigation, as more and more issuers decide that those in whom they have reposed trust and confidence have misled them. And they're not going to use blah, blah, blah, but candid phrases like: We didn't know, We didn't understand, and You didn't explain it to us.