ADF检验后如何求长期均衡关系啊

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请问，对一组数据：居民消费、居民储蓄余额、居民可支配收入、居民股票资产进行ADF检验后，发现均为一阶单整，然后如何估计长期均衡关系啊？万分谢谢

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关键词：ADF检验 长期均衡 F检验 ADF 可支配收入 检验 关系 ADF

用EG两步法或JJ检验进行协整检验，就可以得到是否这一组变量存在长期均衡关系。

谢谢你啊，能不能进一步指导一下啊，我做了johansen检验结果，可以看出有至少存在两个协积向量，请问如何据此求出长期均衡方程啊，谢谢了

Date: 05/15/08   Time: 11:37   
Sample (adjusted): 2000:05 2007:12   
Included observations: 92 after adjustments   
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend   
Series: LNCON LNY LNNW LNSW    
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 3   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)   
   
Hypothesized  Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.313700  74.97432  47.85613  0.0000
At most 1 *  0.307146  40.34183  29.79707  0.0021
At most 2  0.066434  6.583778  15.49471  0.6265
At most 3  0.002815  0.259382  3.841466  0.6105
   
 Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
 **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)   
   
Hypothesized  Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.313700  34.63249  27.58434  0.0053
At most 1 *  0.307146  33.75805  21.13162  0.0005
At most 2  0.066434  6.324396  14.26460  0.5719
At most 3  0.002815  0.259382  3.841466  0.6105
   
 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
 **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
 Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):    
   
LNCON LNY LNNW LNSW
 42.94225 -70.88197  26.63113  4.250296
-43.19783  17.50987  16.21206  3.018765
-0.860124 -18.05753  19.38959  0.392902
 11.99917  15.70944 -19.24073  1.564908
   
   
 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):    
   
D(LNCON) -0.010982  0.016138  0.004287 -0.001192
D(LNY)  0.010831  0.001594  0.004308 -0.001439
D(LNNW) -0.002772 -0.004052  0.000447 -0.000147
D(LNSW) -0.000541 -0.002281  0.014072  0.001527
   
   
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  775.1170
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LNCON LNY LNNW LNSW
 1.000000 -1.650635  0.620161  0.098977
  (0.19690)  (0.16119)  (0.02082)
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LNCON) -0.471587  
  (0.21156)  
D(LNY)  0.465098  
  (0.17395)  
D(LNNW) -0.119041  
  (0.04376)  
D(LNSW) -0.023237  
  (0.30080)  
   
   
2 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  791.9961
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LNCON LNY LNNW LNSW
 1.000000  0.000000 -0.699319 -0.124846
   (0.02478)  (0.02265)
 0.000000  1.000000 -0.799378 -0.135598
   (0.02053)  (0.01877)
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LNCON) -1.168712  1.060991 
  (0.27867)  (0.33404) 
D(LNY)  0.396251 -0.739801 
  (0.24649)  (0.29547) 
D(LNNW)  0.056013  0.125536 
  (0.05543)  (0.06644) 
D(LNSW)  0.075305 -0.001587 
  (0.42637)  (0.51109) 
   
   
3 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  795.1583
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LNCON LNY LNNW LNSW
 1.000000  0.000000  0.000000 -0.472319
    (0.29675)
 0.000000  1.000000  0.000000 -0.532788
    (0.33802)
 0.000000  0.000000  1.000000 -0.496874
    (0.41767)
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LNCON) -1.172399  0.983584  0.052287
  (0.27713)  (0.34217)  (0.16703)
D(LNY)  0.392546 -0.817586  0.397798
  (0.24472)  (0.30215)  (0.14750)
D(LNNW)  0.055629  0.117460 -0.130850
  (0.05535)  (0.06834)  (0.03336)
D(LNSW)  0.063201 -0.255700  0.221465
  (0.41522)  (0.51267)  (0.25026)

本文来自: 人大经济论坛(http://www.pinggu.org) 详细出处参考：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-316824-1-1.html

我也不清楚啊，同问

已经存在的一个协整方程为LNCON=1.650635LNY- 0.620161LNNW-0.098977LNSW  
已经存在的两个协整方程为LNCON=0.699319 LNNW+0.124846 LNSW                           
                         LNY=0.799378LNNW+0.135598LNSW 
 

做ols求出参数，（1-所求参数）'。