发帖
雷达卡
美国通货膨胀史分析与经济周期理论
Lin, Ershen (PhD)
英文原文: 2001年11月16日 ━ 2002年5月16日
中文译文: 2007年9月14-17日
货币在商品交换中的使用曾经极大地促进了经济与社会的发展。然而，如何事物都有两个方面。货币的负面影响是造成通货膨胀。这篇文章将对于通货膨胀的起因和各方面的后果进行实证性的分析，并讨论货币稳定性问题。
第一部分 通货膨胀与经济周期
一、通货膨胀率与经济增长率的关系
通货膨胀作为货币供应量过剩的结果对于经济，特别是成长率具有重大影响。为了说明通货膨胀与经济成长的关系，美国的通货膨胀率、经济增长率、失业率 (包括官方失业率U1数据和根据就业率计算出来的真实失业率U2) 的历史数据将作为分析的对象。数据系列将涵盖繁荣的1920年代、大萧条的1930年代、第二次世界大战、战后的经济扩张期、滞胀的1970年代以及二十世纪最后二十年的成长期。由于经济本身具有周期性，一个足够长的数据系列是避免系统性偏差的唯一有效方法，也是为什么要采用美国历史数据的原因之一。另外一个原因当然是美国历史数据的相对可靠性。再者，美国在西方经济中的领导地位使其免受外来因子的干扰。在所有这些方面，其他国家的数据是难以匹敌的。
在二十世纪的上半叶，美国经济在扩张与收缩之间大幅度振动 (图1)。到了下半叶，振幅明显减小，而通货膨胀则成为经常性的特征，并在各种线性与非线性回归分析中表现出来。与此同时，U2则自从1947年的劳工部开始统计以来呈现持续的下降趋势。
为了系统地分析通货膨胀率与GDP增长率的关系，通货膨胀率系列与GDP增长率系列在不同的对应位置作线性回归并得出斜率与回归系数 (R) 的平方，这两个数据被用于对时间作图 (图2A)。总的来说，线性相关性较弱，但可以看出两者在-3至-1年之间的正相关性 (-3年的α ≈ 0.05) 和在1-4年区间的负相关性。也就是说，GDP上升领先于通货膨胀三年，而后者领先于GDP下降一年。如果在分析中使用GNP代替GDP也可以得到类似的结果。上述结果可以与以下两种可能性相容：(1) 高增长-高通货膨胀-低增长；(2) 低增长-低通货膨胀-高增长。
为了对于上述两种可能性进行验证，必须对于通货膨胀时期和通货紧缩区别对待。因此，分别对于两个时期的历史数据作回归分析。
首先，是1927-1940年间的通货紧缩和萧条时期 (图2B)。1920年代早期的通货紧缩时期没有被包括进去是为了防止1910年代的通货膨胀的任何潜在的滞后影响干扰分析结果。分析结果在-1至+1年间显示显著的正相关性 (α < 0.01) 和+3至+4年间显示弱负相关性 (α > 0.05)。显然，经济衰退与通货紧缩并存，两者领先于成长3-4年。这一结果支持低增长-低通货膨胀-高增长的推理。
其次，是1941-1999年间的成长与通货膨胀时期 (图2C)，两种的速率都比较低。在-1至+1年间，通货膨胀率与GDP增长率之间呈现显著的负相关性 (α < 0.05)。这一结果与高增长-高通货膨胀-低增长的推理相容，但仅此尚不足以做出证明。
以上分析也表明图2-1的总体分析包涵了通货紧缩时期的正相关性与通货膨胀时期的负相关性，而总的特征理所当然的是由通货紧缩时期的强相关性统治着。大部分信奉凯恩斯理论的经济学家中间广泛流传的所谓通货膨胀刺激经济增长的说法显然是将通货膨胀和通货紧缩的效应加成并混淆不清并且仅仅观察0年的相关性而得到的错误结论。在这里，他们同时犯了两个不可饶恕的错误：一是没有区别对待经济周期不同的时相；二是没有做不同系列之间不同时间点的“滑动”的分析，而被即时效应所迷惑。
由于美国的通货膨胀率一直被控制在较低的范围内，有必要检验根据美国数据得出的结论是否适用于更高的通货膨胀率。为此目的，选择了二十个由世界银行公布的世界上各区域的主要经济体在1960-1994年间的通货膨胀率和增长率历史数据用于分析。这二十个经济体被分为两组：四个属于高通货膨胀率组 (年通货膨胀率 > 50%)，包括阿根廷、巴西、智利、印度尼西亚；其余16个属于中、低通货膨胀率组，包括德国、埃及、西班牙、法国、伊朗、韩国、日本、马来西亚、墨西哥、荷兰、沙特阿拉伯、南非、瑞典、瑞士、土耳其、美国。在这里，标准是选择各个大陆具有代表性的经济体。某些大经济体由于缺乏可靠的数据而被排除在外。
对于这两组数据做线性回归得到不同的结果 (图2D, 2E)。中、低通货膨胀率组显示通货膨胀率与GDP成长率自0年开始的负相关性，其峰值在1年 (α < 0.01)。这一结果表明在世界范围内通货膨胀略为领先于经济衰退 (与美国的即时相关性略有不同)。因此，可以推测通货膨胀有可能引发衰退，从而证实了由美国通货膨胀数据导出的“高增长-高通货膨胀-低增长”的推理。另一方面，高通货膨胀率组的分析显示从-2年到0年期间极为显著的通货膨胀率与GDP增长率的负相关性 (α < 0.01)。在这里，经济衰退领先于高通货膨胀一到两年，显示经济萎缩可能造成产品短缺和通货膨胀。
综上所述，通货膨胀率与经济增长率具有负相关性：通货膨胀可以在短时间内引发经济衰退，经济衰退可以减低通货膨胀，低通货膨胀则有利于经济增长。这就构成了经济周期的最基本的几个环节。在上述的一般描述中尚有两个环节未能得到充分解释，即如何从经济增长过渡到通货膨胀增加，以及如何从经济衰退过渡到通货膨胀降低。上述分析对于相关性的证明是肯定的，对于因果关系的推理则是假设性的。另一方面，高通货膨胀的起因是比较复杂的；它不完全是货币供应量增加的结果，也是经济萎缩的结果。这是对于通货膨胀理论的重要补充。
二、通货膨胀率与失业率的关系
经济活动与失业率有着密切的联系。如果通货膨胀影响到经济增长，也必然要影响到失业率。因此，有必要研究通货膨胀率与失业率之间的关系。由于美国劳工部数据系列始于1947年，这里使用线性回归分析了1947-1999年间通货膨胀率与U1、U2之间的关系 (图3A, 3B)。通货膨胀率与U1之间在1-4年以及7年存在正相关性 (α < 0.01)，与U2之间在4，8，9年显示负相关性 (α < 0.05)，在-3至-1年也有弱的负相关性趋向 (α > 0.05)。由此可见，U2下降领先于通货膨胀，后者领先于U1的增加2-3年和7年，而U1增加之后1-2年都会有U2的下降。这里能够导出的一般推理是“失业率持续下降-通货膨胀-U1增加-U2减少”。
如果从上述推理要作出因果关系的假设，首先可以认为失业率持续下降可能引发通货膨胀。其次，通货膨胀可能造成中下阶层的经济困难，迫使更多的人参与到劳动力市场中来，从而增加失业率U1。应该注意的是U1的增加是有滞后的，所以与GDP下降的即时效应不是同时的。换句话说，U1增加不是发生在衰退早期，而是发生在衰退之后的复苏时期。当U1下降到正常范围的时候，U2就降低了，说明全社会的就业率提高了。所以，通货膨胀本身并不刺激就业，而是通过增加生活费用来迫使非就业人口在衰退之后的复苏时期参与市场。
第一部分未能解释如何从经济增长过渡到通货膨胀，而这一环节恰好可以通过失业率持续下降引发通货膨胀而得到解释。从经济衰退过渡到通货膨胀降低存在两种途经，即失业率增加和工资下降。对于U2的分析表明衰退早期的失业率只是略有上升，没有显着意义，说明工资下降可能有重要作用。因此，通货膨胀时期的一个经济周期可以被假设为以下事件系列：(1) 经济增长使更多的人进入劳动力市场 (U1增加)；(2) 更多的人就业导致失业率U2持续下降；(3) U2持续下降最终引发通货膨胀率上升；(4) 通货膨胀率上升在短时间内引发经济衰退；(5) 经济衰退减低工资以及就业率；(6) 低工资以及低就业率减低通货膨胀率；(7) 低通货膨胀率有利于经济增长。在这一系列事件中，通货膨胀率的改变与经济增长率的改变是紧密相连的两个事件。可见通货膨胀在经济周期中起了关键的作用。对于通货紧缩时期，GDP数据上述假设相容，但由于就业数据的缺乏，目前尚无法验证上述假设是否适用。
第二部分 通货膨胀的作用机理
在各种与通货膨胀相关的现象中，经济增长率的下降是关系最为密切的。现在的问题是如何解释通货膨胀带来经济衰退？
首先，通货膨胀减少了可用于再生产的资本存量，其结果要么是减少生产，要么是增加借贷以维持再生产水平。在宏观水平上，两种效应必然同时存在。后者将增加对于金钱的需求和价格，使利率上升。
其次，通货膨胀减少储蓄的本金和实际利率，从而减少储蓄的欲望。尽管利率随着通货膨胀而增加，但往往不足以弥补通货膨胀带来的损失。美国1970年代的情况便是如此。通货膨胀也同样影响到股东的增值与红利。在通货膨胀期间，小投资者的回报在扣除税收之后往往成为负数。在这种环境中，超前消费变成一种时尚，银行的坏帐会增加。这是一种中长期的现象。
由于国内资本形成途径受阻，通货膨胀必然增加对于外国资本的依赖性。与此同时，通货膨胀很可能触发货币贬值，造成资本外流、资金短缺，触使利率进一步上升。当利率上升和银行坏帐的增加达到一定程度时，经济衰退就成为不可避免的现实。
上述分析预期利率上升与两个因子相关联：(1) 短期资本存量的减少；(2) 中长期储蓄的减少以及资本外流。于是，通货膨胀造成的利率上升是短期现象与中长期现象的加成。这一预期已经为美国通货膨胀率与基础利率在-1至8年的正相关性 (α < 0.01) 所证实 (图4A)。显然，在0-1年的峰值反映了短期效应，而其后的长尾反映了中长期效应。此外，美国通货膨胀率与一年期国债利率也具有类似的正相关性。
利率改变对于GDP增长率具有即时的影响，正如预期的那样。美国基础利率与GDP增长率的负相关性显示于在0年 (α < 0.01) 和1年 (α < 0.05)，正相关性显示于3-4年 (α < 0.05) (图4B)。美国一年期国债利率与GDP增长率也显示类似的关系。
以上定量分析充分证明了本文对于通货膨胀在经济周期中的两种作用机制的理论推理。
有人以为通货膨胀可以鼓励消费而达到刺激经济的作用。其实，这种刺激是通过减少储蓄率而达到的。应该认识到储蓄并不意味着资本停止循环，而是减少消费以扩大再生产 (包括基本建设、教育、研发的费用)，资本始终没有停止流动。减少储蓄丝毫不会增加社会的总需求量，而仅仅改变其消费方式。当然，储蓄率不是越高越好，但美国社会长期依赖日本和中国的储蓄来填补其预算赤字，其自身储蓄率过低则是毫无疑问的。通货膨胀可以减轻政府和企业的债务负担倒是一点不假。但这种好处是短期的。随着储蓄的减少和利率的上升，长期经济增长率下降是不可避免的。在美国，这种负面影响从历史的角度来看虽然已经相当明显，但问题尚不十分严重。这是因为美元最为储备货币的地位和美国最为世界经济体系中心的地位决定了资本向美国集中的倾向，抑制了利率的上升，其它国家决不可能效仿美国的榜样。
最后应该指出的是通货膨胀必然改变整个社会的消费模式。长期来看，通货膨胀必然减少消费者的可支配收入，从而减少对于消费品的需求和储蓄。某些美国经济学家认为通货膨胀不会降低消费者的购买力，因为工资是与物价指数挂钩的。然而，挂钩不是普遍的，况且银行储蓄的下降无论如何不可能挂钩，两者对于消费者的实际购买力均有影响。通货膨胀说到底是财富从民间向政府的再分配过程，相当于一种税收。既然是税收，就不可能不影响民间的购买力和需求。除此之外，通货膨胀也可以被雇主用于抵消工资的增长，是一种劫贫济富的方式。这里的所谓贫者主要不是指赤贫者，而是广大中下阶层。所以，通货膨胀必然使消费品市场特别是基本消费品市场疲软。但是社会总需求量确实可以不受影响，民间的购买力减低可以被政府购买力的增加所抵消，社会中下层的购买力减低可以被上层购买力的增加所抵消，尽管这是一种不同的需求。
第三部分 国际货币体系极其前景
美国的通货膨胀在世界上具有特别的意义。今天的国际货币体系以美元代替黄金最为储备，所以这个体系可以称之为美元标准。这种情况与十九世纪英镑的统治地位相类似，但又有所差别：美元与过去的强势货币不同，它已经无法按固定牌价转换为黄金。美元仅仅是一种法定货币，其币值很容易在货币市场上被高估，而且这种情况早已发生。
说美元被高估有两条证据。首先，联合国公布的PPP比例显示美元对于发展中国家的货币被高估。其次，美元大量持续地流入资本主义世界体系的边缘国这一事实无疑是Gresham定理无处不在的体现。美元在边缘国比在中心国身价更高，所以流向边缘国。这种单向流动不会因为达到平衡点而终止，因为纸币的供应量可以无限增大，同时又完全符合美国的短期利益。美国以印刷的纸张换取其它国家的产品和服务，而其它国家接受这种交换因为他们以为美元是一种保值的手段。
当然，这一过程不可能永远地延续下去。英镑在四个世纪之内贬值了三个半数量级，从而沿着通货膨胀的路子完成了自我毁灭。美元在过去的两个世纪里也已经贬值了一个半数量级。如果美元要避免英镑的噩运，美国必须采取负责任的财经政策，放弃那种以通货膨胀来消灭债务和增加税收的如意算盘。不过，在国债利息占用财政支出一半的时代，采取负责任的财经政策对于白宫的主人来说是个难以想象的挑战。
某些美国经济学家宣称只要国债与GDP的比值不增加，国债不会成为问题。这种思维的背谬在于它一旦被各主要经济体所接受，整个体系就会进入赤字预算年代，到那时就没有人能够出来填补赤字，最终导致国际金融体系的崩溃。
自从第二次世界大战以来，通货膨胀一直在统治世界经济。大多数国家包括美国都乐于以凯恩斯疗法对付经济衰退，尽管凯恩斯主义在理论界早已风光不在。这种情况大概还会持续相当长的时间。
通货膨胀的诱惑力可以从几个方面得到解释。一是通货膨胀增加财政收入而不必增税。二是通货膨胀减轻债务负担，西方各国政府往往是国内最大的债务人。三是通货膨胀对于富人有利，因为在西方国家富人总是超前消费的主力军，也是主要的债务人群体。最后一点是因为采用大量注入资金的方式挽救危机中的大银行和资本市场，加重通货膨胀。不久前美国及西方各国对次级房屋贷款危机的处理就是沿用了这个老办法。这种注资虽然可以暂时缓解危机，但却造成长期的停滞，因为经济错位无法得到矫正。总之，只要权宜之计仍然成为治国的方略，通货膨胀就会成为一个挥之不去的幽灵，而美元的下滑轨迹也不会改变。
Inflation and the economic cycle
Lin, Ershen (PhD)
First Draft: 16 November 2001 – 16 May 2002
Modified: 14-17 September 2007
Money as a medium of commercial exchange greatly facilitates economic and social development. However, every coin has two sides, the negative side being inflation. Inflation could be traced back to the beginning of civilisation. In this paper, causes and consequences of inflation will be analysed based on empirical evidences, and approaches to a stable currency will be discussed.
1. Inflation and the Economic Cycle
A. Inflation & Economic Growth
Inflation as a result of excessive money supply has a profound influence on economy. To delineate the relation between inflation and economic growth, historical data of the GDP growth rate, the inflation rate, and the official unemployment rate U1 as well as the real unemployment rate U2 from US were analysed (Figure 1). The time span covers the prosperous time of 1920’s, the severe recession of 1930’s, World War II, the post-war expansion, the inflationary time of 1970’s, and recent years. A longer time span is desirable since it prevents potential bias related to any particular phases of the economic cycle.
In the first half of the 20th century, the US economy showed dramatic swings between expansion and contraction. Since 1950, the magnitude of the cycle became smaller, but inflation became more persistent, linear and polynomial regression produce curves with positive slope, indicating rising inflation in the long term (results not shown). The trend for U2 is a continuous downward movement since the statistical data from the US department of Labor became available in 1947.
The inflation rate was compared to the GDP growth rate of different years by linear regression to study any potential delayed influence on economic growth. The slope and R2 of the regression curves are plotted against time (Figure 2A). Generally the correlation is weak throughout the time frame. Nonetheless, there is a clear trend that the inflation rate is positively correlated with the GDP growth rate of the 3 preceding years (year –3 to year –1, a ≈ 0.05 at year -3) and negatively correlated with the growth rate of the 4 following years (year 1 to year 4). Similar results were also obtained with an analysis of the inflation rate vs. the GNP growth rate (results not shown). These results suggest two general sequences of events that are not mutually exclusive: (1) higher GDP growth precedes higher inflation, and higher inflation precedes lower GDP growth; (2) lower GDP growth precedes lower inflation, and lower inflation precedes higher GDP growth.
To distinguish the two possible interpretations mentioned above, further regression analyses were carried out with data from two shorter periods.
The first period (1927-1940) was characterised by deflation and severe recession (Figure 2B). The early 1920’s also had deflation but were excluded from the analysis to avoid confounding by potential delayed influence of the preceding inflation in late 1910’s. The results show highly significant positive linear correlations ( < 0.01) between the inflation rate and the GDP growth rate from year –1 to year 1. In addition, there are weak trend of negative correlations between the inflation rate and the GDP growth rate from year 3 to year 4 ( > 0.05). The correct interpretation should be severe contraction causes deflation, and deflation might have a weak stimulatory effect on growth 3-4 year afterwards (1). Therefore, the second sequence of lower growth  lower inflation  higher growth is confirmed.
The second period (1941-1999) was characterised by growth and inflation, both at low to moderate rates (Figure 2C). Inflation in this period shows weak but significant negative correlations with the GDP growth rate from year –1 to year 1 ( < 0.05). This suggests that inflation is associated with lower economic growth. This is consistent with the first sequence but cannot finally confirm it.
The correlation in the longer period is a result of both the positive correlation in the deflationary period and the negative correlation of the inflationary period. Confounding of the two periods leads to low confidence level in earlier analyses. Obviously, the overall feature of the curves from the longer period is dominated by the brief deflationary period because the correlations in this period is much stronger than those of the inflationary period. The wide spread belief among economists that inflation stimulates growth is obviously a result of confounding between inflation and deflation at the point of year 0.
The inflation rate of US has been contained within a rather narrow range in recent decades. It is thus desirable to investigate the influence of inflation in greater ranges of the inflation rate. For this purpose, inflation and growth data (1960-1994, from World Bank) from 20 major economies in five continents were analysed by linear regression (2). These were divided into two groups: a hyperinflation group of 4 with sustained inflation rate of >50%, and a mild-inflation group of the other 16 including US. There is no available data on sustained deflation in recent decades.
Linear regression analyses on data from these two groups produced results with distinct differences. The mild inflation group shows a negative correlations between the inflation rate and the GDP growth rate from year 0 and after with a peak at year 1 ( < 0.01) (Figure 2D). This suggests that inflation precedes lower growth; it potentially reduces growth. This observation provides a stronger support for the first sequence mentioned earlier than the US data. The results from the hyperinflation group show more significant negative correlations between the inflation rate and the GDP growth rate from year –2 to year 1 with a peak at year 0 ( < 0.01) (Figure 2E). It suggests that lower growth (or recession) potentially causes hyperinflation. The sample sizes in the international studies are much larger, giving the higher confidence levels for both groups.
In summary, the inflation rate is negatively correlated to the GDP growth rate. Increase in the inflation rate could trigger recession, which reduces inflation, and eventually lead to recovery. Nonetheless, it remains to be determined how growth causes inflation, and how recession reduces inflation.
B. Inflation & Unemployment
Since economic activity and the employment (or unemployment) rate are closely related, it is desirable to examine the correlation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Linear regression analysis on historical data from US, which belong to the second period, demonstrates positive correlations between the inflation rate and U1 from year 1 to year 4 and year 7 ( ≤ 0.01) (Figure 3A). It also shows negative correlations between the inflation rate and the increase of the U2 growth rate at years 4, 8 and 9 ( ≤ 0.05) as well as a weak trend of negative correlations at year -3 to year -1 ( > 0.05) (Figure 3B). The general conclusion is that inflation is probably preceded by a decrease of the real unemployment rate, followed by two waves of increase in U1 (at years 2-3, and year 7) and in the U2 growth rate (at year 1) as well as two waves of decrease in U2 (at year 4 and years 8-9). The increase in U1 precedes the increase in the U2 growth rate. The increase in U1 reflects greater participation rate in the labour market in an attempt to compensate for the erosion of the real purchasing power by inflation, which eventually caused the decrease of the U2 growth rate. Therefore, the reduction of the real unemployment rate is not a result of a stimulatory effect on the economy by inflation; instead, it is a result of the economic hardship.
The hypothesis on the economic cycle from the previous section could be expanded to include the result from this section. The sustained reduction of the unemployment rate U2 could explain the inflation as a result of wage increase. On the other hand, recession could reduce inflation by lower employment rate and/or by lower wage. Since the increase of U2 is insignificant based on the US data after 1947, it suggests a greater role of wage reduction in inflation reduction. Therefore, an economic cycle stars as an expansion and increase in job market participation, which reduced unemployment, followed by higher inflation, which has a negative feedback on the growth. At this stage, the economy enters the contraction phase; wage is cut, which reduces inflation and prepares the economy for the next expansion. In this narrow sense, the business cycle goes through the following four phases: expansion  job creation  higher wage  higher inflation  contraction  lower wage  lower inflation  expansion. Inflation serves as a critical link in the transition from expansion to contraction during the economic cycle. The theory above is based on the study of the inflationary period. It is not clear whether it is applicable to the deflationary period of the 1930's.
2. How Does Inflation Affect the Economy?
Among all potential consequences of inflation, reduction of economic growth is the most conspicuous. How does inflation reduces economic growth?
At the most direct level, inflation reduces the available capital stock in the real term. This leads to two possible outcomes or effects for particular business: (1) reduction in the production level; (2) increase lending to maintain the current production level. In the aggregate level, both effects will be felt. The second approach increases demand for money and increases the real interest rate. These effects will be mitigated, however, if the extra currency is in the form of loans.
Secondly, inflation also inevitably reduces the incentive to save because it reduces both the real value of the principle and the real interest rate for creditors. Although the nominal interest rate tends to increase with inflation, it is often insufficient to compensate for inflation as it happened in US during 1970's. Inflation also reduces the real dividends rate and the capital gain for shareholders. These disincentives for saving become even stronger when tax is levied on investment incomes without taking inflation into account. The real investment return after tax (or even before tax) could become negative. In general, inflation encourages credit-based consumption as well as speculation.
By reducing domestic saving, inflation also fosters a dependence of business and government on foreign capital. At the same time, inflation causes currency devaluation and drive out foreign capital. Reduction of domestic saving and outflow of foreign capital push the interest rate even higher, which in combination with higher consumer debts, eventually trigger economic contraction.
The analyses above predict that the interest rate is influenced by two factors in relation to inflation: (1) the short-term factor of the reduction in the capital stock; (2) the longer-term factor of lower saving and, possibly, capital outflow. Therefore, inflation could increase the interest rate in the short term as well as in the medium-to-long term. This prediction is confirmed by the fact that the inflation rate is positively correlated to the prime-lending rate from year –1 to year 8 ( < 0.01) with a peak at years 0-1 (Figure 4A). Obviously, the peak reflects the short-term influence whereas the long tail reflects the medium-to-long term effect. The short-term Treasury bill rate also responds in a similar manner to changes in the inflation rate (data not shown).
The changes in the interest rate leads to immediate changes in the GDP growth rate, as anticipated. The prime-lending rate shows negative correlations with the GDP growth rate at year 0 ( < 0.01) and year 1 ( < 0.05) but positive correlations at years 3 and 4 ( < 0.05) (Figure 4B). The results show that changes in the prime-lending rate are associated with changes in the GDP growth rate in the opposite direction virtually without delay, which is reversed 3-4 years later. These correlations are preserved when the prime-lending rate is substituted with the interest rate of the 1-year Treasury bill (data not shwn).
It could be argued that inflation has a stimulatory effect on the economy as it encourages consumption. However, increase in consumption means decrease in saving, decrease in capital formation, and higher interest rate. It should be understood that saving is not reduction of consumption but a replacement of personal consumption by industrial and public consumption, the capital never lays idle because of saving. Therefore, any increase in the demand for consumer goods is completely neutralised by a decrease in the demand in capital goods and public goods and services such as infrastructure, education, research and development, accompanied by consumer debt accumulation. Until the consumer pay back the debt, the fund is redirected from the other industries to the consumer industries. In other words, higher consumption merely changes consumption pattern without increase in the aggregate demand and will not alleviate a general glut. Whether the change of the consumption pattern is desirable or not depends on whether the change corrects or aggravates the deviation of the current pattern from the optimal. It has also been argued that inflation could stimulate economy by reducing the debt burden on business. This benefit is temporary and is more than offset by the numerous negative effects in the long run.
Finally, inflation also changes the overall consumption pattern of the society. Inflation inevitably reduces disposable income of everyone, leading to a reduction in demand for consumer goods as well as domestic saving. Some ivory tower economists argue that inflation does not erode the real purchasing power since wage is indexed to inflation rate. But this is far from a universal practice. In addition to erosion of the real wage, erosion of saving also reduces the real purchasing power. Obviously, redistribution of wealth from the people to the government can never be materialised without erosion of the purchasing power. That is why inflation should be considered a form of tax. In addition, price increase could also be initiated by the capitalists to neutralise wage increase. From this perspective, inflation may also be a symptom of class war. In any event, inflation always reduces demands for consumer goods particularly the basic necessities.
3. The Currency System and the Prospect
There is a need to emphasize the implication of inflation in the US because the current international monetary system essentially uses the US dollar as the specie reserve in lieu of gold. This system could be fairly considered on the US dollar standard. This situation is somewhat similar to the dominance by the pound sterling in the 19th century. However, there is one significant difference: the dollar, unlike the pound or any other previous dominant currencies, can no longer be converted to the species reserve. Hence it can be easily overvalued in the international market, and this has indeed occurred.
There are two strong evidences pointing to overvaluation of the US dollar. Firstly, the purchasing-power-parity ratios directly show that the dollar is overvalued at least against currencies of developing nations. Secondly, the continuous flow of the dollar to the developing nations is a result of the Gresham's Law: it occurs because the dollar commands a higher price in the international market than in the domestic market. This outflow will not stop automatically as the supply of the paper dollar is potentially unlimited. It works to the advantage of US as the latter only gives printed papers in exchange for goods and services from other nations in faith that the papers will retain the value.
Of course, this process cannot continue indefinitely; the pound sterling eventually destroyed itself by inflation. If the dollar is to avoid the fate of pound sterling, the US government must adopt responsible monetary policy and resist the temptation to reduce its obligation to the creditors and to expand its revenue basis by chronic inflation. The US government has so far failed to adopt a responsible monetary policy and continues to depend on debts especially foreign debts to finance its budget deficit. Currently, the interest expense uses up about half of the total the US government revenue.
Some economists in US believe that accumulation of the “public debt” poses no threat to the financial system as long as the ratio of the total debts to the total GDP does not increase in the long term. Should the theory becomes a consensus among major economies, the deficit-financing policy will also be adopted by them. This would leave no one to finance any debts, causing another collapse of the international monetary system.
Interestingly, inflation has been dominating the economic landscape of the entire world since World War II. In our time, most governments in the world including the US government still prescribe the Keynesian therapy to the economy in severe recession despite the fact that Keynesianism has lost respect among the theoreticians long time ago.
There are several reasons to explain the seductive power of inflation to the government. First of all, inflation increases the government revenue. In addition, inflation favours debtors, as pointed out earlier. Governments will benefit from inflation since they are usually the biggest debtors within their respective nations. Furthermore, inflation favours the rich since they have the credit to borrow and then benefit from inflation. The rich have an enormous clause on the government everywhere; they never forgo an opportunity to distort the law and the policy in their own favour. Finally, the government prefers to monetising government and corporate debts (that is always accompanied by inflation) to avert defaults and consequential crises in the financial market and severe recession. But there is a price to pay: it results in a sustained stagnation in both the financial market and the general economy because the correction process takes longer time under an inflationary environment. As long as the government cannot resist the temptation of political expedience, inflation would remain as the "inevitable evil" of the world.
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