德意志银行：欧洲石油开采加工行业研究报告2008年12月

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1 December 2008
European Integrated Oils
Fuel Stop
Lucas Herrmann, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73636
lucas.herrmann@db.com
Elaine Dunphy, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 207 545 9138
elaine.dunphy@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch/ or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Periodical
Performance past month %
DJ EURO STOXX 50
OMV
StatoilHydro
FTSE 100
Eni
TOTAL SA
BG
BP
RD/Shell A
RD/Shell B
Repsol
-20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
Absolute performance last month (%)
Source: Bloomberg
WTI futures curve ($/bbl)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg
Global refining capacity additions
-950
-450
50
550
1050
1550
2050
2008 2009 2010
kboe/d
Other Atlantic Basin
US
Europe
Other Pacific
India
2.5 mb/d excess new capacity
with demand downside
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates
Gasoline crack spreads
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
$/bbl
2003-2007 range 2006 2007 2008
Source: Bloomberg
OPEC spare capacity 2000-9E
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Spare Spare ex Nig, Iraq, Ven, Iran
On current target of 27.3mb/d, effective spare capacity ex
VINI rises to 4.5mb/d of which 3mb/d is in S.Arabia.
Effectively 5% world supply (or 7% on a gross basis)
Spare = 11% world supply
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates
Global Markets Research Company
Key Messages
Absent a demand floor, rising stock levels and faltering demand suggest the risks
to the crude oil price remain firmly to the downside.
Refining margins look set to come under further significant pressure most
significantly in Europe as the last bastion of strength, distillate, sees demand fall.
As economic contraction accelerates globally we retain our strong positive view
on the super-majors given robust balance sheets, continued sizeable cash-flows
and their capacity to provide investors with a growing dividend stream.
Main recommendations
BP (Buy, 585p): Against a difficult macro-backcloth upstream volume growth,
restructuring benefits and the return of full conversion capacity in refining suggest
relative headway backed by an attractive 7% plus sustainable dividend yield.
Total (Buy,

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关键词：行业研究报告 德意志银行 行业研究 研究报告 石油开采 研究报告 加工 欧洲 德意志银行 石油开采

这也太贵了吧 楼主啊