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Sector likely to undershoot guidance
Profit contraction to persist in FYMar-10
Close to the bottom, but no signs of
recovery yet. We remain underweight on
the sector
In light of a tough Christmas sales season and the potential
for further weakness ahead during 4Q, we believe the
Japanese consumer electronics sector is likely to
underperform already downwardly revised earnings
guidance. In our view, key earnings pillars (flat panel TVs,
DSCs, and mobile handsets) have continued to suffer from
pricing pressure, weakening demand, and product mix
deterioration. We believe that forex has compounded this
cocktail of negative factors in 3Q.
With the challenging environment persisting in FYMar-10e,
we believe earnings in these key segments will continue to
contract. Thus, operating profits for most players in the
sector will likely stay on a downward trend. In fact, we
expect the combined operating profits of the companies
under our coverage to drop 61% from FYMar-08 levels.
We believe consensus expectations will be trimmed further.
While valuations for the sector are already factoring in many
of the negatives and share prices seem close to forming a
bottom, given the lack of potential catalysts for recovery and
an uncertain global macroeconomic outlook, we believe it is
still too early to turn positive on the sector. We also believe
that a painful period of adjustment and downsizing still lies
ahead and that the potential cost of needed restructuring will
put pressure on earnings in the short term.
We reaffirm our Underweight (V) ratings on Sony (6758),
Sharp (6753), and Panasonic (6752). We have cut our
FYMar-09 operating profit estimates on Sharp by roughly
32%, as we anticipate that its LCD panel business will fall
into losses in 2H. We also expect Sony to post JPY25.7bn in
operating losses in FYMar-09 due to weakness in electronics
and restructuring costs. We think consensus expectations
regarding Sharp and Sony are still too bullish. Given
challenges ahead, the recent appreciation in the share price
of these companies should be used as an opportunity to take
profits, in our view.
目录
A tough Christmas … 3
Challenges still lie ahead 7
Panasonic Corp (6752) 12
Sharp Corp (6753) 15
Sony Corp (6758) 19
Disclosure appendix 23
Disclaimer 28
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