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SECTOR REVIEW
How Much Does It Cost?
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How do the costs of alternative energy technologies compare? We
find that solar crystalline is the most expensive at $153 while solar thermal is
$90 per MWh, both still significantly more expensive than traditional sources.
In comparison, nuclear power costs $62, coal is $55, and natural gas plants
are $52 per MWh. Wind and geothermal power are the least expensive
alternative energy sources at $43 and $36 per MWh, respectively. Our
interactive LCOE model is available upon request; please contact your
Credit Suisse representative for a copy.
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“Grid parity” is a moving target. Grid parity is dependent on the price of
natural gas which generally sets the price at peak times. With NYMEX gas
at $5, this implies power prices in the range of $36 for efficient gas plants
(7,200 heat rate) to $70 for inefficient peaker plants (14,000 heat rate).
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From a utility’s perspective, solar is far from grid parity without
subsidies. At a $6/watt system price, solar PV (crystalline) is approximately
$153 per MWh and $140 for thin film, including the investment tax credit
incentive. Without incentives, solar PV is $240 and wind is at $64 per MWh.
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Regardless of the economics, we believe solar will continue to grow.
There is significant momentum behind the solar industry, but that growth is
being driven by policy directives and government incentives, not by
economics. Additionally, residential and commercial users can benefit from
roof-top solar systems, which are influenced by slightly different economics.
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Cost reductions are key for solar. Longer term, solar has its place on the
grid, as it generates power at peak times and has zero carbon emissions.
However, to be an economic alternative for utilities, system prices need to
decline 50% (to $3/watt, including the balance of system components), and
a $20/ton carbon tax must be imposed on carbon-generating plants. We
think the oversupply in solar can drive prices to this level by 2010-11. Under
this scenario (no incentives, 50% cost reduction, and a $20 carbon tax),
solar PV LCOE is $141, which implies a gas price of at least $10 for it to be
economical.
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Grid investments are project specific and can be significant. For
example, a $1 billion transmission investment for a 500-mile line would add
$20 per MWh to the LCOE. Distributed generation, such as rooftop solar PV,
fuel cell power plants and microturbines, have the benefit of requiring
minimal grid investments.
Table of contents
The Levelized Cost of Electricity 3
Apples to Apples in Alternative Energy 3
Our Conclusions 4
The LCOE methodology 5
Solar and utilities: speaking the same language 6
Dispatch curves favor solar power: low variable costs 7
“Peak Demand” generation also favors solar 7
A hypothetical exercise… 8
Solar growth will be driven by policy 9
“Grid Parity” is a moving target… 9
Solar PV Crystalline 10
Solar PV – Thin Film 12
Solar Thermal 14
Wind 16
Efficient Gas Plant (CCGT) 18
Nuclear 20
Coal 22
Fuel Cells 24
Geothermal 26
Appendix 28
Assumptions & Further Considerations 28
Why is the LCOE for gas plants (CCGT) lower than the actual dispatch cost? 29
Glossary of Terms 30
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