2009.2.8 2308 台達電JP

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2009.2.8  2308 台達電JP  11pages

• Valuation remains unjustifiably high, stay Neutral: We remainNeutral on the stock and cut our DCF based Jun -09 PT to NT$ 50. Wefeel that Delta's current high valuation (1.8x FY09E book, 13x FY09PE) remains unjustified compared to peers, given similar ROE andmedium term earnings growth prospects. As a result we expect the stockto see downward pressure in the near term. We would revisit the stock atmore reasonable valuation levels (below NT$ 45), once clarity on newproducts emerges. Key risk is a big pickup in telecom power revenues.However, we do not think this pickup is likely in 2009

.• Power supply growth trajectory to turn south in 2009: We expectDelta’s power biz to slow significantly in 2009 due to lack of uniqueearnings drivers. In addition, growth areas in 2007 like notebook powerand LCD TV should both see sharp decline at least in 1H09. Telecompower does hold some promise due to 3G capex in emerging markets,but is not large enough to negate the downside in other segments

.•

 Faster ASP erosion expected in LCD TV and NB space: With slowerdemand across the board, we see rapid ASP erosion in NB and LCD TVspace, due to clients’ poor profitability and emergence of low priceproducts. For NB, ASPs should trend down as customers gravitatetowards lower priced notebooks and net books. In LCD TVs, we expectmost of the growth to come from CRT replacement market at 32”, whichhas lower power consumption and hence, much lower ASPs

.• New segments hold long term potential, but no immediate results:Delta has started efforts to enter the LED lighting, automotive electronicsand battery technology (for hybrid vehicles) and has made several smallinvestments in these areas. While we feel that these ensure better longterm growth prospects than most downstream peers, we also do not seeany immediate results from these ventures. Contribution in 2009/10should remain quite small from these segments.

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