卖莲的故事

有这么复杂吗？其实卖莲的只是一种心理作用作怪而已！也许只是认定了我是来卖这个东西的，既然还没有卖完为何还要买呢？于是拒绝。卖莲的也许就没有做过多的思考！

我不懂经济学的那么多道理，但我摆过地摊，根据我的做法，首先要看莲蓬好不好卖（5元），好卖的话，如果你还愿意2元给我，我要。

不好卖的话，一毛给我也不要，应为这个一毛损失的可能性很大。

情人节那天我摆地摊卖玫瑰花了，哎哟那个生意真是好！18元一朵像发牌一样，那天我进了50朵，后悔啊！！盼着有人10元再给我一点，可没人愿意了。

以下是引用aomaidan在2005-9-13 9:41:18的发言：

我不懂经济学的那么多道理，但我摆过地摊，根据我的做法，首先要看莲蓬好不好卖（5元），好卖的话，如果你还愿意2元给我，我要。

不好卖的话，一毛给我也不要，应为这个一毛损失的可能性很大。

这个帖子就说实话了。不蒙人。顶

库存出清价格小于2是一可能。注意这是个现实问题，还有可能是卖莲的人或许由于已经卖了很久了，想回家了，不愿再带着莲回去了。再一可能就是他家是种莲的，出来就是把莲换成现金的，因此他不愿换

大家的推理都是建立在理性的基础上

还有一种情况就是卖莲蓬的人非理性，呵呵，即也许仅仅看楼主不顺眼

自己的莲蓬多的卖不出去，再花钱买一个进来，一般人不会这么傻。

最主要的原因是因为他不懂得市场操作，他最担心的买进来了卖不出去。小孩见识有限得很，他根本不知道大城市里莲的市场很大。

以下是引用yxue122在2005-9-26 11:04:13的发言：

大家的推理都是建立在理性的基础上

还有一种情况就是卖莲蓬的人非理性，呵呵，即也许仅仅看楼主不顺眼

Suppose we know someone's objective and also know that half the time that person correctly figures out how to achieve it and half the time acts at random. Since there is generally only one right way of doing things (or perhaps a few) but very many wrong ways, the "rational" behavior can be predicted but the "irrational" behavior cannot. If we predict this person's behavior on the assumption that he is rational, we will be right half the time. If we assume he is irrational, we will almost never be right, since we still have to guess which irrational thing he will do. We are better off assuming he is rational and recognizing that we will sometimes be wrong. To put the argument more generally, the tendency to be rational is the consistent (and hence predictable) element in human behavior. The only alternative to assuming rationality (other than giving up and concluding that human behavior cannot be understood and predicted) would be a theory of irrational behavior--a theory that told us not only that someone would not always do the rational thing but also which particular irrational thing he would do. So far as I know, no satisfactory theory of that sort exists.

Insofar as the irrational part of their behavior is random, its effects are likely to average out in the aggregate.A second reason why the assumption works better than one might expect is that we are often dealing not with a random set of people but with people who have been selected for the particular role they are playing.

以本人的肤浅之见，抛开那些经济因素解释，可能他的成本就小于２元或就上面几位所说的

！！！但我以为应该考虑一下卖者的心理因素！！试问，人家是在卖东西给你，又怎么会反过来买你的呢？？？可能会是心理原因吧！！！！！