韩国金融行业研究报告2009年3月

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Banking (Neutral): Banking shares trade at 0.6x the 2009F BPS, near the
previous low (in November 2008). The shares could stage a technical rebound
but we do not believe they are ready to begin a sustained rally given the
faltering global economy, ill-effects of excess leverage and consequent
potential risks. The stock price cycle of banks will likely be similar to what was
seen in the two years that followed the IT bubble burst in 1999. Our top-picks
are Korea Exchange Bank (004940, Hold, TP W6,700) and KB Financial Group
(105560, Hold, TP W29,000).
Brokerage (Neutral): The brokerage sector is unlikely to see a secular rise
as the Korean stock market is expected to move in a limited range. Recently, as
the Kosdaq is more active than the Kospi in terms of trading volume, the daily
average trading value has dropped to a low W5trn. As such and for the time
being, the brokerage sector should move in tandem with the Kosdaq. The
FY09F ROE and PBR are anticipated at about 8% and 1x, respectively. We
assume the daily average trading value at W6.5trn and with the recent cost
structure the break-even point is expected at W4.5trn. We recommend Neutral
for all brokerages and our top pick is Daishin Securities (003540, Hold, TP
W19,000) in light of its large dividend yield.
Insurance (Overweight): The non-life insurance sector is currently exposed
to numerous risks such as refund guarantees, project financing and overseas
investment, but we do not believe the risks will dampen non-life insurers’
healthy profit models. Rather, given mid- and long-term profitability, we view the
current prices of non-life insurers as too low. Given seasonality, the
soon-to-begin second round restructuring of the shipbuilding and construction
sectors, and the forthcoming streamlining of overseas investment,
overweighting insurance stocks now when the FY is closed, can help investors
reduce insurance-related uncertainties. We recommend BUY on all primary
insurers in the KIS Universe except Samsung F&M and highlight Dongbu
Insurance (005830, BUY, TP: W20,000) as our top pick.

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韩国金融行业研究报告2009年3月
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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 金融行业 行业研究 respectively 金融 研究报告 行业 韩国