发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月韩国金融行业研究报告
【作者】：三星证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：39
【目录或简介】：
April performance review and May investment strategy: Performances in
Korea's financial sector were mixed in April. Insurers outperformed the Kospi by 4.2%
on anticipation of Samsung Life’s IPO and a decline in auto loss ratios. In contrast,
banks and securities brokers underperformed the Kospi by 0.3% and 3.4%,
respectively, on concerns over Southern Europe’s financial woes and declines in
turnover and fund sales, negating share-price gains made on expectation of solid
quarterly earnings. Given the sector's bright medium-to-long-term earnings outlook
and attractive valuation (eg, banks and second-tier insurers are trading at 7.4x 2010
P/E and 6.6x 2010 P/E, respectively), we recommend exploiting the recent correction
to accumulate shares. Uncertainties may linger following the IPOs of Samsung Life and
several large Chinese banks, in addition to Southern Europe's continuing problems.
• Banking M&A momentum and eased asset quality concerns expected: Our
covered banking stocks look undervalued, and now trade at 0.9x P/B (despite a 1Q ROE
of 14.5% and an expected 13% for the year). While some worry that the unexpectedly
strong 1Q earnings were led by one-off positives and bond disposal gains, suggesting
slower quarterly earnings momentum from 2Q, we still consider the sector’s valuation
attractive, given: 1) that its credit costs of 0.8%—far above the 2006-2008 average of
0.6%—will eventually decrease, and keep earnings momentum solid; 2) it is likely to
benefit from government stimuli, including measures announced on Apr 23 to promote
the purchase of unsold, newly built housing units; and 3) that we expect M&A
momentum to pick up this quarter following the appointment of a KB Financial Group
chairman and the release of a Woori Financial Group privatization roadmap.
• Insurance earnings remain stable as industry-specific risks dissipate:
Insurance shares rebounded from earlier weakness and rallied in April, backed by: 1)
solid FY09 earnings results—despite a deteriorating business environment; and 2)
fewer industry uncertainties. We expect direct underwriters to see mid-teen earnings
growth in FY10—despite slowdowns in long-term initial premiums and auto-line
growth—on the back of robust inflows of recurring premiums in long-term lines.
Industry-specific risk factors are also dissipating—eg, auto loss ratios improved to an
average of 73-74% in March, while interest rate hikes are now considered more likely.
The market is eagerly anticipating the Samsung Life IPO (scheduled for May 12), which
should boost investor interest, particularly given the sector’s relatively attractive
valuations. Hyundai Marine & Fire and Dongbu Insurance remain our top insurance
picks—due to their high earnings visibility and attractive valuations—while Samsung
Fire & Marine’s overhang risk should be mitigated following Samsung Life’s IPO.
• Securities brokers remain unattractive: We remain conservative on securities
shares, as: 1) profits decline on a drop in the proportion of retail investors in brokerage
and wealth management following slowing fund sales; 2) the low interest rates of cash
management accounts deter firms from using these short-term financing channels; and
3) trading profits should drop when bond yields recover. Earnings momentum is
unlikely to pick up anytime soon, and our view of the sector should not change until it
does. Our top picks are Daewoo Securities—as its brokerage business should gain the
most once trading volume recovers—and Korea Investment Holdings on valuation
merit.
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
