2009年12月美国金融行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Banking on Markets
MONTHLY
A Turkey Hangover or a Year-End Rally?
While there are some bright spots, overall fourth quarter capital markets activity
remains fairly tepid fourth quarter-to-date as we cap off a year of recovery.
Investment banking activity has been resilient but remains at absolute low levels,
asset prices are mixed after a significant year-to-date recovery, and market
volumes are holding in but have recently tapered a bit in some areas. Whether
activity picks up in December or investors remain de-risked on the sidelines
through year-end will be important for overall fourth quarter activity levels. Going
forward, our estimates rely on slow but steady normalization of capital markets
conditions into 2010. Within our coverage universe, other key issues we’re
keeping an eye on include the evolving regulatory landscape, consolidation of
the competitive landscape and expense management (compensation,
investment spending).
■
Investment Banking Activity. Calendar fourth quarter to date, based on
information from Dealogic, investment grade debt underwriting is tracking
down 5% from third quarter levels while high yield debt underwriting is up
36%. The volume of equity underwriting is up 10%—related disclosed fees
are up 5% from third quarter totals. Completed M&A is tracking up 26%
quarter-to-quarter while announced M&A is up 40%.
■
Asset Prices and Volatility. Fourth quarter-to-date, equities prices are
mostly higher; fixed income prices are more mixed. Specifically, equities
prices are mostly up on a period-end basis but up more on an average basis,
short term interest rates are lower while long term interest rates are higher,
high grade credit prices are mostly stable while high yield credit prices are
slightly up, and commodities prices are up. Residential real estate indices
are mostly up while commercial real estate indices are down. Volatility
across most asset classes was down in November.
■
Trading Volumes. Fourth quarter-to-date, global exchange volumes have
been fairly resilient. Cash equity volumes have retrenched. Cash fixed
income volumes are lower. With respect to derivatives, commodities/energy
volumes continue to be one noticeable bright spot while interest and foreign
exchange derivative volumes are also exhibiting signs of improvement.
■
Retail Brokerage and Fund Flows. Retail brokerage trends continue to
hold in. Client asset inflows have remained stable-to-modestly negative for
the traditional brokerage houses but remain positive for the discount/online
channels. Trading activity continues to eclipse last year’s record levels, but
has begun to pull back as equity market volatility has normalized. With
respect to fund flows, fixed income funds fourth quarter-to-date have
experienced net inflows while money market funds have experienced net
outflows; equity funds are relatively stable.
■
The Stocks. Within our capital markets coverage universe (i.e., brokerage
and advisory firms, discount retail brokers, securities processors, financial
exchanges and market structure firms), our favorite names include Goldman
Sachs, Blackstone, State Street, CME Group and Charles Schwab.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 金融行业 行业研究 Underwriting 美国 金融 研究报告 行业

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