2010年3月台湾金融行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Taiwan Financial
Services
Downgrading Cathay;
Upgrading Taishin and E.Sun
Investment conclusion: For 2010, we see downside
risk to earnings relative to consensus expectations for
Cathay Financial and Shin Kong Financial (we cut our
2010/11 estimates 23/13% and 73/68%, respectively).
In contrast, we see upside earnings potential relative to
consensus expectations for Taishin Financial and E.Sun
Financial (we raised our 2010/11 estimates 3/8% and
11/5%, respectively). We therefore suggest investors
reduce exposure to Shin Kong (EW) and Cathay, which
we downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight with a
new target price of NT$57. We also suggest raising
holdings in Taishin and E.Sun, which we have upgraded
to Overweight from Equal-weight, with new target prices
of NT$14.6 and NT$15.2, respectively.
Where we differ: Our near-term investment yield
estimates for Cathay/Shin Kong are lower than
consensus; for E.Sun/Taishin, our 2010/11 EPS
estimates are 15/31% higher than consensus.
Consensus earnings likely to fall: We estimate the
recurring investment yield for Cathay and Shin Kong will
be around 3.4% in 2010, vs break-even returns of 3.3%
for Cathay and 4.1% for Shin Kong. Consensus
earnings estimates are thus likely to fall, and the shares
may reflect lower investment yield assumptions.
Upside to earnings estimates for Taishin and E.Sun
Consensus earnings estimates for these two companies
may rise as NIM starts to expand with lower deposit
costs and higher exposure to fixed rate loans. For
Taishin, key positives are: 1) write-backs in its consumer
book as excessive write-offs in recent years are
recovered; 2) greater exposure to higher-margin
consumer businesses, which would help profits in a
recovery and 3) an increasing management focus on
increasing shareholder value. For E.Sun, we expect the
cost/income ratio to fall to 56%/51% in 2010/2011 from
an average of 65% in 2008-2009.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 金融行业 行业研究 respectively 金融 研究报告 台湾 行业

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