花旗：全球消费行业研究报告2009年3月

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Global Consumerism at the Crossroads
Thrifty Times in the West; New Affluence in the East
 Drivers of consumer behavior — Consumer behavior in developed economies is
determined by the interaction of economic, political, and social factors; today,
those factors suggest a prolonged period of consumer restraint. By contrast, in
many developing economies, the mid-tier of consumers is forecast to enjoy
relatively fast growth. Developing countries will grow from 56% of the global
middle class in 2000 to 93% by 2030 — largely concentrated in East Asia.
 Three phases of 21st century post-bubble consumerism — (i) Reaction: Excessive
risk aversion, retrenchment in lending, minimal discretionary spending;
(ii) Adjustment: Moderation of the initial reactions; (iii) After the adjustment…
 After the adjustment, “thrifty times” in the West:
(1) Thrifty, not frugal — “Thrift” suggests a shrewd approach to consumption;
by contrast, “frugal” implies “cheap” and “less.” Thrifty consumers will value
quality products, as opposed to simply more products. (2) Saving, not
investing — Thrifty consumers will also increase their savings rates, but shun
risky investments. (3) From conspicuous consumption to “conscious
consumption” — Following a period when conspicuous consumption was both
socially acceptable and economically feasible, consumer behavior is likely to
become more “conscious,” spurring a trend toward ethical consumption.
(4) Conservative fashions — Social scientists have observed that, historically,
conservative attire has reflected consumer restraint. (5) Closer contact — In
addition to spurring a trend toward multigenerational (“3G”) housing, a tough
economy is likely to heighten feelings of social isolation, increasing the appeal
of interactive sports. (6) Wholesome fun is good for your health — Individuals
in post-bubble economies will likely reassess their work-life balance.
 Looking past the cyclical slowdown, “new affluence” in the East:
(1) Changing diets — Income-driven shifts in consumption have implications
for dairy products, meat processing, chocolate, snacks, prepared meals, and
fast food. (2) Modern retailing — A shift from traditional to modern formats.
(3) New status symbols — Expenditures on status symbols (e.g., housing,
autos) rise with income. (4) An active lifestyle — Greater affluence leads to
more health consciousness. (5) Trading up — Emerging middle classes
prefer quality tech and telecom products over “bare bone” alternatives, e.g.,
stylish laptops, advanced cell phones. (6) Going global — In addition to
domestic tourism, emerging middle classes are also traveling globally.

目录

Global Consumerism at the Crossroads 3
Thrifty Times in the West: It’s Different for the Rich 4
From One Extreme to Another 5
“Consumer Behavior is Fundamentally Changing” 6
The Interaction of Economic, Political, and Social Factors 9
The End of “Keeping up with the Gateses” 10
Japanese Consumers in the “Lost Decade” — Wary Shoppers 12
Economic Factors and Consumer Behavior 18
Thrifty, not Frugal… 18
…But neither Cheap nor Chic 19
Saving, not Investing, in Thrifty Times 21
Big Government and the New Social Etiquette 23
A Spotlight on Executive Compensation 24
“The AIG Effect” 25
“The Guy at the Soup Kitchen in High-Hat and Tuxedo” 26
From Conspicuous Consumption to “Conscious Consumption” 27
Social Factors and Consumer Behavior 31
“3G Housing” 32
Downward Pressure on Fertility Rates 34
Conservative Fashions 35
A Toll on Health 38
Raising Incomes of All Doesn’t Increase the Happiness of All 39
"Well-Being is the New Luxury" 40
Sport as a Social Activity 42
“Fun is Good For Your Health”… 42
…But Sober Fun; Frivolity is “Unacceptable” 43
New Affluence in East Asia 45
The Challenge of Marketing to the Middle 47
Varying Income Levels 47
Global Needs, Local Complexities 48
Beyond the Basics 50
Healthcare: An Underdeveloped Infrastructure 50
Food and Beverage: Quality and Convenience 51
Changing Diets 52
Snacking 54
The Convenience Factor 55
The Significance of Modern Retailing 57
Housing: Largely a Local Business 59
Footwear and Apparel: Opportunities and Challenges 61
Active Sports 61
Apparel Retailing: The Challenge of International Expansion 62
Automobiles: Mid Range for the Middle Class 62
Tech-Telecom: Quality Products 63
Telecom: The Importance of Product Innovation 63
Technology: Trading Up 64
Travel: Domestic and Global Tourism 66
Going Global 67
Risks 68
Appendix A-1 70

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