荷兰银行：太平洋地区种植业研究报告2009年5月

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SE Asian Plantations
Shortage coming
The worsening Argentinian drought has led us to increase our CPO price forecast
for 2009 from US$650/t to US$700/t. We expect the soybean stock/usage ratio to
fall to the lowest in a decade, driving up the price of soybean oil. We raise our
earnings estimates sectorwide, and reiterate our Overweight rating.
Table 1 : Key recommendation and forecasts
Rec Target price Current price up/downside PE FY09F
KLK Buy RM14.66 RM12.00 22% 14.4
Astra Agro Buy Rp21,878 Rp18,650 17% 15.0
IOI Buy RM6.08 RM4.76 28% 17.0
Sime Darby Buy RM9.29 RM6.95 34% 14.4
Golden Agri Hold S$0.50 S$0.47 6.4% 12.7
Priced close of business on 25 May 2009
Source: ABN AMRO estimates
Argentinian drought and lower fertiliser use depress soy and palm productivity
The USDA has forecast 2009 soybean production will be the worst in five years at 219m
tonnes and inventories will reach 46m tonnes. The drought in Argentina is the worst in 43
years and has spread to parts of Brazil, and Argentina’s soybean exports have fallen 26% in
1Q09 due to the worsening conditions. In April, the USDA lowered its forecasts for soybean
production and inventory for 2008-09 by 3% and 10%, respectively. We expect soybean oil
prices to rise to US$1,100/t in 2009, from US$866/t currently. The price differential between
soybean oil and its closest substitute, CPO, may jump to US$300/t (the highest since March
2004) from US$54/t currently, providing a boost to palm oil. Also, CPO yields have been
falling in Malaysia and Indonesia due to low fertiliser use and ‘tree stress’. In April, Malaysian
CPO production fell yoy for the fifth straight month, according to latest numbers from the
Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).Our revised CPO price forecast for 2009 is US$700/t
(from US$650/t) due to the swine flu factor.
Swine flu may raise the tempo for palm oil
In an extreme scenario of a swine-flu epidemic, the palm oil price could rise US$50/tonne
above our forecast for 2009. The flu has claimed more than 100 lives so far, mainly in
Mexico, and if it turns into a pandemic, there could be mass culling of pigs. This would
sharply reduce the demand for soybean meal, as over 80% of the world’s soybean meal is
used as a source of protein for pigs, chicken and other poultry. In such a scenario, soybean
crushing would be rendered unprofitable, given that roughly 80% of soybean crush is used
for soybean meal, while the rest is used for soybean oil. The resulting decline in soybean oil
production could lead to a shortage and boost prices beyond our 2009 forecast of US$1,100/t.
Sime Darby stands out
We have Buy recommendations on Sime Darby, IOI, KLK and Astra Agro. Current valuations
look reasonable compared to levels in the previous boom in 2006. We believe Sime Darby
provides the best upside to rising CPO prices and that it is undervalued at 14.4x 2009F PE
and 3.9x PB. It is a liquid stock with average trading volumes of over US$20m, and also a
bellwether for Malaysia. We downgrade Golden Agri to Hold, as we now find it fully valued.
Contents
Palm oil supply tightens 3
We expect a severe tightening of palm oil supply. We raise our average CPO price
forecast for 2009 to US$700/t. We present two scenarios that we believe will drive
up soybean oil and palm oil prices – swine flu and drought. Palm oil productivity is
also weakening.
3
Argentina’s drought takes a toll 3
Palm oil productivity suffers 5
Will swine flu benefit palm oil? 7
The prospect of a swine flu pandemic may have some unexpected consequences.
It might drive down soybean crushing volumes and cause a shortage of soybean oil.
This may offer further upside to palm oil prices.
7
A swine-flu pandemic can lead to further CPO price upside 7
Money grows on trees 9
Sime Darby is our top pick. Its productivity has been improving since the three-way
merger in 2007 and we believe its stock has not rerated sufficiently with the CPO
price rise. We downgrade Golden Agri to Hold (from Buy), but still view the counter
favourably.
9
DCF valuation 9
Exposure to CPO 10
Company profiles
Astra Agro Lestari 11
Golden Agri-Resources 16
IOI Corporation 22
Kuala Lumpur Kepong 27
Sime Darby 32
2

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