金融时报社评：称亚洲经济V型复苏为时尚早

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社评：称亚洲经济V型复苏为时尚早
        亚洲开发银行(ADB)预计会出现真正的V型复苏。在将东亚地区（不包括日本）2009年增长预期从去年的6%下调一半，至3%后，亚行如今预计该地区经济增幅2010年将反弹至6%。
       考虑到东亚地区赖以发展的全球贸易的崩溃，这种预期没有什么太大的可疑之处。在每年两度的报告中，亚行以出口广泛的（虽仍有些迟疑的）复苏、生产状况好转和股市上涨为由，认为甚至与几个月前相比，东亚的经济前景亦有所改善。这种说法是受欢迎的，但就此宣称V型复苏还为时尚早。
       保持谨慎的理由在报告本身中就能找到。复苏在很大程度上反映出物理学定律。如果你把某样东西扔到地板上，它就会弹起来。上周，韩国经济在第二季度录得五年多来最快增长，但这只是相对于过去几个季度的糟糕表现而言。作为亚洲复杂供应链的领头羊，台湾第一季度GDP降幅达到惊人的10.2%。台湾将需要许多个季度（如果不是数年）的强劲增长，才能收回失地。
       保持谨慎的另一个理由存在于经济刺激方案中。中国的经济刺激方案，以及韩国等其它国家规模较小的刺激方案，似乎发挥了作用。但各国政府只是用公共投资代替了日渐减少的出口和私人投资。除非他们打算一个接一个地不断推出财政刺激方案——随之带来产能过剩、资产价格膨胀和金融体系遭到破坏等明显的危害——否则就需要为他们的经济找到新的增长引擎。到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明内需实现了结构上的增长。       另外，中国也没有像某些人所幻想的那样，已准备好取代美国和欧洲成为亚洲的最后购买者。亚行的报告显示，包括中国在内，东亚地区本身仅占亚洲最终出口需求的22%。2009年上半年，中国并未能填补缺口，其进口反而下降了四分之一。
       尽管许多亚洲国家口头上说需要使经济恢复平衡，但他们给人的印象，是在等待西方需求回归“正常”。不过“正常”已不复存在。除非亚洲经济体能够创造出更多自己的需求，否则其复苏仍将是脆弱的。

TOO EARLY TO DECLARE A V-SHAPED VICTORY

    The Asian Development Bank is predicting a veritable V-shaped recovery. After halving from 6 per cent last year to an estimated 3 per cent in 2009, growth in east Asia, excluding Japan, is forecast to bounce back to 6 per cent in 2010.

     That is nothing to sniff at considering the collapse of world trade on which the region depends. Citing a broad, if still hesitant, recovery in exports, stronger production and rising stock markets, the ADB's twice-yearly report concludes that the outlook has improved, even from a few months ago. That is welcome. Yet it is far too early to declare V for victory.

     The reasons for caution are contained within the fine print of the report itself. Much of the recovery reflects the laws of physics. If you drop something on the floor it bounces. Last week, South Korea clocked its fastest growth in more than five years for the second quarter, but only relative to the dire quarters that had gone before. In Taiwan, a bellwether of Asia's complex supply chain, first-quarter GDP dropped by a breathtaking 10.2 per cent. It will take many quarters, if not years, of robust growth merely to make up lost ground.

     Another cause for caution lies in the stimulus packages themselves. That of China and, to a lesser extent, of others such as South Korea, seem to be working. But governments are merely substituting public investment for the exports and private investment that have melted away. Unless they intend to roll out package after package – with the obvious dangers of overcapacity, asset price inflation and damage to the financial system this could entail – their economies will need to find new engines of growth. So far there is little evidence of a structural pick-up in domestic demand.

     Nor, as some fantasise, is China ready to replace the US and Europe as Asia's buyer of last resort. The ADB report shows that the region itself, including China, accounts for just 22 per cent of final demand for Asian exports. In the first six months of 2009, far from taking up the slack, Chinese imports fell by a quarter.

     In spite of rhetoric about the need to rebalance their economies, many Asian countries give the impression that they are waiting for western demand to return to “normal”. But normal is over. Until Asian economies can create more of their own demand, their recovery will remain fragile.

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