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Contents
2Q09 EARNINGS — BY THE NUMBERS ............................................................................................................................................................................4
Earnings Surprises ...............................................................................................................................................................................5
Earnings Adjustments...........................................................................................................................................................................5
Performance .........................................................................................................................................................................................6
Weather ................................................................................................................................................................................................7
2Q09 RATING AND PRICE TARGET CHANGES................................................................................................................................................................7
Rating Changes....................................................................................................................................................................................7
Price Target Changes...........................................................................................................................................................................8
SECTOR OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................................................................................................8
INDUSTRY THEMES...........................................................................................................................................................................................................10
Retreating Commodity Prices Could Ease Political Pressures ............................................................................................................10
Assessing the Policy Implications of a Democratic Administration ......................................................................................................11
Federal Energy Legislation on Renewable Standards, Tax Credits and Climate Change ...................................................................12
Industry Regains Some Certainty After Flawed Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Is Reinstated by U.S. Appeals Court .....................13
Renewables and Efficiency Gain Greater Support at Local Level .......................................................................................................14
Performance Divergence Based on Commodity Exposure..................................................................................................................16
Heightened Importance of Regulatory Success..................................................................................................................................17
Dividend Tax Extension ......................................................................................................................................................................17
New Build Generation Cost Escalation...............................................................................................................................................18
M&A OUTLOOK WEAK ON FAILED DEALS AND CREDIT CONCERNS; STRONGER PLAYERS CONSERVATIVE, BUT COULD BE
OPPORTUNISTIC........................................................................................................................................................................................................19
Possible Acquirees .............................................................................................................................................................................19
Possible Acquirers..............................................................................................................................................................................19
Recent M&A Activity Update...............................................................................................................................................................20
SHORT INTEREST OVERVIEW .........................................................................................................................................................................................21
GROUP INVESTMENT THESIS..........................................................................................................................................................................................22
SOUTHERN COMPANY (SO-NYSE) — EXPECTING BALANCED GEORGIA DECISION, MAINTAIN BUY RATING — reprinted from 08/27/2009...24
PEPCO HOLDINGS, INC. (POM-NYSE) — 2Q09 – TOUGH MERCHANT AND UTILITY RESULTS, LOWERING ESTIMATES — reprinted from
08/11/2009 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................26
GREAT PLAINS ENERGY INCORPORATED (GXP-NYSE) — SOLID QUARTER, RAISING PRICE TARGET — reprinted from 08/06/2009 .............29
PPL CORPORATION (PPL-NYSE) —2009 TOUGH QUARTER; LOWERING ESTIMATES — reprinted from 08/06/2009............................................31
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC. (AEP-NYSE) — STRONG QUARTER, RAISING 2009 ESTIMATE AND PRICE TARGET —
reprinted from 07/31/2009..........................................................................................................................................................................................33
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC. (AEP-NYSE) - RAISING PRICE TARGET; STRONG 2Q EXPECTED — reprinted from 07/20/2009
.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................35
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC. (AEP-NYSE) — POSITIVE OHIO AUCTION RESULTS — reprinted from 06/07/2009..................36
CLECO CORPORATION (CNL-NYSE) — SETTLEMENT DETAILS FINALLY REVEALED — reprinted from 07/30/2009...........................................37
EXELON CORPORATION (EXC-NYSE) — DOWNGRADING SHARES ON VALUATION, REDUCED VISIBILITY OF DRIVERS — reprinted from
07/27/2009 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................38
ELECTRIC UTILITIES: ASSESSING POR ANNOUNCEMENT FOR OUR NAMES — reprinted from 07/22/2009 ........................................................39
AVISTA CORPORATION (AVA-NYSE) — STRONG 2Q EXPECTED; RAISING ESTIMATES — reprinted from 07/09/2009........................................41
DPL INC. (DPL-NYSE) — OHIO SETTLEMENT APPROVED WITHOUT MODIFICATION — reprinted from 06/25/2009..............................................42
DPL INC. (DPL-NYSE) — ATTRACTIVE VALUATION, UPCOMING CATALYSTS; UPGRADING FROM HOLD TO BUY — reprinted from 06/19/2009
.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................44
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (FE-NYSE) — RAISING ESTIMATES AFTER MEETING — reprinted from 06/04/2009 ...........................................................46
APPENDIX...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................48
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